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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| China's First SLBM Test Since 1982 - Details |
| 2026-07-12 |
| [AEI] TOPLINES The PLA conducted a rare test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in the South Pacific, likely to test and demonstrate its enhanced nuclear second-strike capability. PRC state media reported on July 6 that an unspecified ballistic missile nuclear submarine (SSBN) conducted a test of an SLBM.[1] The submarine may have fired the missile from the Bohai Sea or the South China Sea, based on PRC Maritime Safety Administration notices in both places on July 6. The missile landed between Tuvalu and the Gilbert Islands of Kiribati.[2] The PRC last tested a ballistic missile in the Pacific in 2024, which landed near French Polynesia, and has not publicly announced a test of an SLBM since 1982.[3] PRC state-owned tabloid Global Times speculated that the missile tested was a JL-3, a missile the PRC first unveiled during a September 2025 military parade that has a reported range of 10,000 kilometers.[4] PRC officials did not confirm the type of missile launched. Taiwanese National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu stated it was likely a JL-2, however, which only has an 8,000-kilometer range.[5] The submarine that fired the missile was very likely a Type 09IV, the PLAN’s only known active model of SSBN.[6] The PRC may have sought to test and demonstrate its ability to strike the United States with an SLBM from PRC internal waters. The PRC maintains a no-first-use (NFU) nuclear policy and has renounced the use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear armed states.[7] ISW-CDOT has assessed that the PRC is enhancing its nuclear second-strike capability to ensure that an adversary first strike cannot fully destroy PRC nuclear forces.[8] The undersea leg of the PRC’s nuclear triad is particularly vulnerable to interdiction because its nuclear submarines must traverse several maritime chokepoints before deploying to the Pacific Ocean, increasing the probability of detection and destruction in wartime.[9] The US Department of Defense has assessed that the PRC may be aiming to develop submarine “bastions” within its internal waters – undersea areas fortified with sensors, sea mines, and other defenses –to increase the likelihood that its SSBNs could contribute to a retaliatory strike.[10] The JL-3’s increased range would allow the PRC to threaten the US mainland with its SSBNs without risking them in a far-seas deployment. |
| Posted by:Dopey Photch2701 |