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Israel-Palestine-Jordan

Religious bargaining: Netanyahu faces both a riot and an intifada

2026-07-08

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Shamil Kerashev

[REGNUM] A new crisis is brewing in Israel's political arena, where preparations for early parliamentary elections are in full swing. It's not even political, but rather a fierce religious bargaining on two domestic fronts.

One of them has once again made its presence felt in the debate surrounding ultra-Orthodox Jews. Recently, the Knesset (Israeli parliament) finally passed the Basic Law on Torah Study in its first reading, which officially proclaims yeshiva studies as a matter of special importance and a fundamental national value, and yeshiva students as individuals who bring significant benefits to the state.

However, the original version of the document, insisted upon by the ultra-Orthodox themselves, contained somewhat different wording. Specifically, it explicitly equated the study of sacred texts with military service in the IDF. Consequently, it would have given fundamentalists the right to a full package of military benefits while legally avoiding conscription.

It's worth noting that such demands from the Haredim—and, conversely, attempts to forcibly mobilize them—have repeatedly led to mass unrest. However, now legislators appear to be seeking to circumvent these thorny issues, on the one hand, by securing a formal (but seemingly unconditional) right to immunity for a certain category, while, on the other, satisfying society's demand for equal burden-bearing.

However, the question remains: will this legal casuistry satisfy those who interpret equality in the most literal sense—namely, as military service? The aforementioned law made it to its second reading by a hair's breadth: only 63 members supported it, while the required minimum was 61. Among those voting against it were two MKs from the ruling Likud— Dan Iluz and the Russian-speaking former Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein.

The former declined to comment. But the latter has already announced his intention to leave the party and has openly hinted at forming his own: "There are those in Likud who are driven crazy by the approaching primaries. I am embarking on a new political path."

The reasons are not officially stated. However, according to a number of Israeli analysts, the final straw was Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and company's ingratiation with the ultra-Orthodox, while Edelstein himself traditionally relies on secular or moderately religious voters. And most importantly, he seems to have a fairly accurate assessment of current social trends.

According to a study by the Israel Democracy Institute, more than 73% of citizens now consider any preferences for Haredim in a country at war to be absolutely unacceptable.

Particularly radical respondents refuse to accept not only the fact that yeshiva students evade military service, but also the fact that many of them, while formally unemployed, have not paid income taxes for years. This means they are exacerbating the budget deficit in the context of an already severe economic crisis.

True, the ultra-Orthodox themselves are immune to bribery. They sincerely believe that the Jewish state exists solely thanks to their spiritual protection, and that prayers create a metaphysical shield that protects Israel far more effectively than the tanks and batteries of the Iron Dome.

"If there weren't yeshiva students, rockets would fall on houses and destroy entire neighborhoods. Anyone who truly loves soldiers should ensure that there are also Torah students," former Chief Sephardic Rabbi of Israel Yitzhak Yosef recently stated.

It's hard to say whether Netanyahu's team, which clearly leans toward right-wing political Zionism and only occasionally indulges in religious public rhetoric, believes this.

However, it's no secret that without the support of fundamentalists (Shas and United Torah Judaism), Bibi (the prime minister's nickname) and his team will find it extremely difficult to retain power: a fierce battle is underway for every seat. Consequently, the prime minister will have to navigate a tightrope walk between the principles of the clergy and the demands of the armed forces, which the opposition actively supports.

In this regard, the position of former Chief of the General Staff, now a respected center-left leader of the Yashar party, Gadi Eisenkot, deserves special attention. According to Israeli media reports, he is actively developing a compromise that would, firstly, grant up to 30% of Haredim long deferments. And secondly, create an alternative for the majority of the remaining population, for example, through civil defense.

“We work with everyone who strengthens Israel and we do not reject any faction if it agrees to three conditions: recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, recognition of the values of the Declaration of Independence, and – one way or another – mandatory military service,” Eisenkot emphasizes.

Thus, secular voters are being offered a systemic plan to overcome the crisis through a fair system, while the ultra-Orthodox themselves can legally receive significant concessions—but not the blanket immunity that angers the overwhelming majority of Israelis.

Netanyahu, however adept he may be at manipulating the establishment, finds himself in a situation where it's likely too late to allow himself such compromises. A move toward the secular majority would likely lead to the collapse of the coalition with the Haredim in the Knesset.

Conversely, further indulgence of the orthodox sector risks leading it to the dangerous brink of rebellion within its own party, as some deputies have already dared to make public protests.

All this is not to mention the second—Islamic—strand of the religious-political conflict, where a crisis is brewing over the controversial "Muezzin Law." The initiative, which had been stalled in parliament for almost ten years, was suddenly revived and even passed a preliminary reading with the personal support of radical National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

If the next readings are equally successful, Israeli police will gain the authority to issue hefty fines to mosques or confiscate their loudspeakers under the pretext of "combatting noise pollution," claiming that the morning calls to prayer are disturbing the sleep of Israeli residents.

And here's an interesting detail. Previously, Shas and United Judaism had unequivocally opposed such amendments: their leaders reasonably feared that the authorities would crack down on Orthodox Jewish preachers following the mosques.

But now, it seems, they're no longer afraid—and it's no surprise, since all the signs of a deal are there. Perhaps, in an attempt to somehow defuse the public backlash against the yeshiva students, the cabinet is ready to throw the secular Zionists their usual bone in the form of pressure on the Muslim minority.

However, according to local media, the outcome is unlikely to be what Netanyahu is hoping for. Those who are endlessly tired of the Haredi caste privileges will no longer be satisfied with banal anti-Arab populism. Meanwhile, the Arabs themselves will likely react to the tightening of the screws with even greater anger—and, in the worst case, a new intifada.

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Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2026-07-08 07:15

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