[REGNUM.RU] Solar activity has sharply increased, and maximum X-class flares could begin at any moment. This was reported on June 30 by the press service of the Solar Astronomy Laboratory of the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
According to scientists, a flare spiral has begun to unwind on the star. Over the past 24 hours, researchers have recorded 17 flares, compared to eight the day before and five the two days before. On the morning of June 30, for the first time in over a week, two M-class flares—the second-lowest in power—occurred.
Experts attributed the increased activity to the fact that two large sunspot clusters at the corona merged into a single complex magnetic structure and began actively exchanging energy. They estimate that such a "magnetic reservoir" is capable of accumulating energy for an exceptionally powerful flare.
The laboratory noted that this year's largest sunspot group is currently almost directly opposite Earth, but has not yet produced a single X-class flare. Scientists consider this to be an exception and admit that X-class flares could begin at any time.
On February 2, an X8.11-class solar flare occurred, which remains the most powerful since the beginning of 2026.
On June 3, scientists recorded an M9.3-class flare, and on June 5, the plasma clouds ejected during it reached Earth and caused a moderate-magnitude magnetic storm that lasted until June 6. On June 21, specialists again recorded a series of M-class flares, the largest of which reached M2.
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Scientist Bogachev: Giant sunspots can cause powerful magnetic storms
The largest sunspot group in 2026 is aligning with Earth and could trigger magnetic storms near the maximum G4 level if X-class flares occur in the area. Sergei Bogachev, head of the Solar Astronomy Laboratory at the Space Research Institute (IKI) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, spoke with Regnum News Agency on Tuesday, June 30.
On Tuesday, the largest sunspot group will align with Earth. According to the scientist, it will have its greatest impact on the planet until Wednesday, July 1, inclusive. If large plasma emissions occur in the area during this time, powerful magnetic storms will almost certainly occur on Earth.
"The mere fact that a group of sunspots is aligned with the Sun-Earth line doesn't mean there will be any storms or anything else threatening. It simply means that if solar events do occur, they will have a stronger impact on the planet. From Monday through Wednesday, the group of sunspots will be at their most effective. If X-level flares occur in the first half of this week, the effect will be severe. Storms will then immediately occur, and their intensity could reach G4 on a five-point scale," Bogachev explained.
Moreover, in the area aligned with the Earth, no flares of the maximum (X) or even the average (M) level have been recorded yet. If such events do not occur, major storms should not occur.
"This sunspot group is the largest of the year, and it has already surpassed in size the regions that produced the year's largest flares, but it still shows no activity. This sunspot group hasn't yet produced a single M-magnitude flare, let alone an X-magnitude flare. It produces flares of the standard C-magnitude. We have no basis for predicting any direct events," Bogachev concluded.
On June 26, the largest sunspot group of 2026 emerged on its Earth-facing side. It was designated 4478. Its area is 1190 m.s.p. (a unit of measurement for sunspot area). There is no actual activity in this region yet.
Bogachev previously noted that solar activity would continue to decline, with numerous magnetic storms expected for at least the next two years. By 2028–2031, they should cease altogether.
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A high-level X-ray flare has been detected on the Sun.
Scientists have recorded a sharp increase in solar activity—17 solar flares, including two strong ones. A top-level X-ray flare occurred on the Sun on June 30. This was reported by the Solar Astronomy Laboratory of the Space Research Institute (IKI) of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
"Here comes the first X outbreak. The situation could unfold in almost any direction," the statement reads.
Sergei Bogachev, head of the Solar Astronomy Laboratory at the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, reported that the largest sunspot group in 2026 will align with Earth and could trigger magnetic storms of near-maximum G4 intensity if X-class flares occur in the region.
On June 26, the largest sunspot group of 2026 emerged on its Earth-facing side. It was designated 4478 and covered an area of ​​1190 m.s.p. (a unit of measurement for sunspot area).
Bogachev previously noted that solar activity would continue to decline, with numerous magnetic storms expected for at least the next two years. By 2028–2031, they should cease altogether.