| Long. Maps illustrate each section. A useful update on the current state of play. |
by Peter Bofin
Senior Analyst, Southeast Africa
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- ISM is developing an enclave that stretches along more than 100 kilometers of the Cabo Delgado coast and 50 km inland. Within this area, and despite a military presence, the group has some freedom of movement, maintains its main base, and seeks legitimacy with the population.
- Since 2023, ISM’s approach to communities has been increasingly sectarian and based on religious grounds. The Islamic State has encouraged this approach centrally and reinforced it through its own media channels.
- ISM’s continued targeting of civilians with no effective state response, particularly to the south of this emerging enclave, will further undermine state legitimacy.
- To the north, continued significant investment in maintaining Rwanda’s military presence in order to secure Mozambique LNG, while ISM continues to attack communities elsewhere in the province, may erode the project’s social license to operate.
In March 2026, a coastal villager in the Mocímboa da Praia district told a journalist that “when you come across the military, your heart is in your mouth. It’s better to come across insurgents than soldiers.”1 Just a few years ago, the villager’s remarks would have been surprising: Prior to 2022, the insurgents were brutal, once beheading up to 50 villagers in a single incident and routinely destroying homes, businesses, and public facilities. But over the past few years, Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) has been taking a less violent approach to coastal communities in Cabo Delgado province, where it is seeking to develop a distinct area of influence, marked by the N380 highway and the sea to the west and east, and between Mocímboa da Praia town in the north and Quissanga district to the south (see map below).
More at the link
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Mozambique: 2026-06-28 Fears grow for civilians as paramilitary group closes in on strategic Sudanese city
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Mozambique: 2026-06-19 Islamic State Mozambique is using IEDs as a first line of defense around Catupa forest