U.S. RECORDS NET NEGATIVE INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IN 2025 FOR FIRST TIME IN 50+ YEARS
— The Dallas Express News (@DallasExpress) June 29, 2026
More people left the country than arrived last year, according to Census Bureau and Brookings estimates.
The sharp reversal follows years of strong positive net migration.… pic.twitter.com/gB1jXBvmy3
From the linked article:
The United States recorded net negative international migration in 2025 for the first time in at least 50 years, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Brookings Institution.More people left the country than arrived, marking a sharp reversal from decades of positive net migration.
Estimates for the net loss in 2025 range from 10,000 to 295,000 people. The shift resulted from both a significant drop in new arrivals and an increase in emigration. Projections for 2026 show the trend could continue, with net migration potentially remaining low or negative.
SHIFT IN MIGRATION PATTERNS
The change became evident in 2025. The Census Bureau reported that net international migration peaked at 2.7 million in 2024, then fell to about 1.3 million in 2025. It is projected to drop further to around 321,000 in 2026 if current trends hold.
This marks the first time since the Great Depression era that the U.S. has seen more people leave than enter on a net basis. Brookings Institution analysts estimated net flows between -295,000 and -10,000 for 2025.
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
The decline stems from reduced immigration inflows and higher emigration. Policies implemented after President Donald Trump
...So far he's been unkillable, and they've tried....took office in January 2025 contributed to stricter border enforcement and changes in legal immigration pathways. These included increased deportations and reduced approvals for certain visas and humanitarian programs.
Emigration also rose as some U.S. citizens and long-term residents moved abroad. Factors cited in reports include economic considerations, quality-of-life decisions, and responses to policy changes. The exact split between U.S. citizens and non-citizens leaving remains under analysis.
From two weeks ago:
American Workers Now Winning As Illegal Immigration Slows[RedState] As someone once famously said, in politics, most especially in elections, "It's the economy, stupid." There are other factors, of course, but most people vote with their wallets, and there are signs that the Trump administration's immigration crackdowns are having some economic benefits. Key among those benefits? Housing costs were inflated by the presence of illegal aliens, and should now be starting to moderate.
The link goes to a Wall Street Journal column by James Carter, former deputy assistant Treasury secretary (2002-06) and a deputy undersecretary of labor (2006-07). Mr. Carter's piece here is worth consideration. Key points, first, in employment, where wages are rising in key sectors:
Take construction, which relies heavily on immigrant labor. Wages in the sector grew at roughly 2.5% annually between 2010 and 2017. Now BLS data shows construction wages growing at 3.1% through the first quarter of 2026—above the sector’s pre-enforcement baseline, even as broader private-sector wage growth cooled to 3.4%.
It would be accurate to say that construction relies heavily on cheap, illegal immigrant labor - but no longer. Now these jobs are presumably being filled by Americans, who are being paid a healthier wage.
Housing costs, though, may be the big gain.
Housing is more complicated, which advocates of immigration enforcement should acknowledge. A 2024 study by Troup Howard, Mengqi Wang and Dayin Zhang found that heightened enforcement reduced residential construction workforces in affected counties, resulting in fewer homes built and higher prices.
But demand is shifting too. A recent Federal Reserve working paper finds that unauthorized immigration accounted for roughly 30% of house-price growth and 20% of rent growth in the average metro area between 2021 and 2024. As that demand eases, so should price pressure. Zillow reports national mortgage costs at their best level since August 2022, with affordability expected to improve in 49 of the 50 largest metros by year’s end.
But demand is shifting too. A recent Federal Reserve working paper finds that unauthorized immigration accounted for roughly 30% of house-price growth and 20% of rent growth in the average metro area between 2021 and 2024. As that demand eases, so should price pressure. Zillow reports national mortgage costs at their best level since August 2022, with affordability expected to improve in 49 of the 50 largest metros by year’s end.
The demand side would seem to be the key player here. In too many of our urban and suburban areas, housing is too expensive for many young people, and now we learn that people in the country illegally may well have driven the costs of private homes up by a third, and of rentals by about a fifth, which almost certainly overwhelms the supply end of the picture. We see this played out every day, in millions of American families; I have described before how it has affected my own family, wherein our two youngest daughters - both in their 30s - can only afford a nice rented townhome in a good neighborhood in a suburb of Denver because they are a three-person household, with our youngest living with her sister and brother-in-law.
This scenario is no doubt played out across the nation, in cities and suburbs, and now we see that illegal immigration may have been a major factor.
The Trump administration's immigration crackdown was initially couched in terms of crime, as in the president's vow to expel the worst first. But we are seeing now the economic benefits of controlled immigration as well: Housing costs beginning to drop, wages beginning to rise. That's a key message for the midterms.