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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Caught in its Own Doctrine: Why Israel Cannot Win, Stop, or Endure the Iran War
2026-06-25
by Tahir Azad

[SMALLWARSJOURNAL.COM] Introduction

Israel’s war with Iran was not imposed upon it. It was chosen, planned, and lobbied for. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spent the better part of three decades arguing that the Islamic Republic constituted an existential threat that only force could resolve, and in February 2026, he persuaded the second Trump administration to act on that argument. Operation Epic Fury opened on 28 February with nearly 900 strikes in twelve hours, the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the systematic targeting of Iran’s senior military and political class. The premise is familiar: overwhelming force, applied without warning and with American backing, could deliver a strategic victory of generational consequence.

The war Israel chose has become the war it cannot finish, cannot abandon, and cannot sustain.
Nonsense. Israel could finish it just fine if everyone else would just get out of the way instead of shielding Iran from the full weight of Israeli wrath. Ditto for Hamas and Hezbollah, though the Houthis might be more of a challenge. Every single war since 1948 the world has intervened to keep Israel from finishing the job.
What this war has produced instead is a structural trap. Iran’s regime survives. Its missile program has been damaged but not eliminated. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Israeli interceptor stocks are critically depleted, dependency on US resupply has been exposed,
…which is why Bibi has been working on growing Israel’s weapons sector…
and the domestic political coalition is fracturing under the weight of expectations Netanyahu himself created. The war Israel chose has become the war it cannot finish, cannot abandon, and cannot sustain. This analysis examines how each of those three exits have been closed off and why even an indefinite ceasefire now favors Tehran rather than Tel Aviv.

More at the link
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