When looking quantitatively at IS operations, attack numbers have hit a historic low thus far in 2026, with two spikes in IS activity in February and June against a range of diverse targets.
Lower levels of IS operations should not be interpreted as a sign that IS has been neutralized in Iraq and Syria, particularly in the wake of the mass escapes of IS families and detainees from Syrian detention facilities earlier this year, militia strikes near prisons holding IS fighters, and incidents of IS infiltration into Syrian security agencies.
The U.S. withdrawal from Syria and impending withdrawal from Iraq by the end of 2026 represent a new chapter for the counter-ISIS campaign in the Middle East, offloading the majority of counterterrorism operations to local actors in the wake of region-wide instability and escalation from the U.S.-Iran war.
Syria is experiencing a second wave of Islamic State (IS) activity this year, with a recent barrage of attacks against a diverse array of governmental, infrastructural, and political targets. In just last week alone, the terrorist group successfully launched at least four attacks against buses transporting Ministry of Defense personnel, oil tankers and commercial trucks, military regional headquarters, and even local political figures such as judges. There have been additional attacks this month against security checkpoints close to oil fields, along with messaging from IS leadership to expel U.S. influence in Syria — even as the U.S. has concluded its withdrawal from the country with parallel plans in neighboring Iraq by the end of 2026. With the U.S. military withdrawal comes additional departures from other capacity-building and advisory missions like NATO Mission-Iraq. If regional governments are now able to quickly sustain the tempo and scope of these former counterterrorism initiatives, IS may find new security vacuums to exploit.
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