Sunday looked like a bleak day for Israel.
As talks opened in Burgenstock, Switzerland
...home of the Helvetians, famous for cheese, watches, yodeling, and William Tell...
, on a US-Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for
spontaneouslytaking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet
militiasto extend the regime's influence. The word
Iranis a cognate form of
Aryan.The abbreviation
IRGCis the same idea as
Stürmabteilung (or SA).The term
Supreme Guideis a the modern version form of either
Duceor
Führeror maybe both. They hate
deal that could hardly be more high stakes for the country, Jerusalem was nowhere to be found, or heard.
Relegated to the role of armchair quarterback, Israel could only figuratively yell at the TV as its closest ally — the country that joined it in war against its arch-nemesis Iran some 100 days ago — began formally negotiating with Tehran on a permanent end to the conflict.
As US Vice President JD Vance arrived at the Qatar
...an emirate on the east coast of the Arabian Peninsula. It sits on some really productive gas and oil deposits, which produces the highest per capita income in the world. They piss it all away on religion, financing the Moslem Brotherhood and several al-Qaeda affiliates. Home of nutbag holy manYusuf al-Qaradawi...
i-owned resort where talks were being held Sunday morning, he was greeted by delegations from Doha, Islamabad, and Tehran, all of whom have a seat at the table.
Israel had no part in negotiating the MOU, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has distanced himself from it. Still, the terms of the opening clause, permanently ending the war and ruling out any resumption, indicate that it is binding on the US, Iran "and their allies." Israeli officials are bitterly opposed to the deal’s terms, which resolve none of the war’s key goals — notably, eliminating Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and creating the conditions for the fall of the regime.
The first item on their agenda, according to reports, was an emergency session on Israel’s conflict with the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group in Leb
...The Leb civil war, between 1975 and 1990, lasted a little over 145 years and produced 120,000 fatalities. The average length of a ceasefire was measured in seconds. Only one of those statements is an exaggeration....
. Of the two states and one terror proxy group with skin in the game, only Hezbollah, closely controlled and funded by Iran, could be said to have anything resembling representation in the negotiations.
After two and a half years of steadily weakening Iran and its proxies, and proving itself as a powerful regional actor that could fight as an equal alongside the world’s superpower, Israel is now seeing Tehran gain influence over both Washington and the regional agenda.
The US-Iran memorandum of understanding and the talks now unfolding in Switzerland remain fresh and vulnerable to collapse. Yet even if they hold, they are unlikely to mark the end of Israel’s fight against Iran so much as the start of a new phase — one in which Israel’s next confrontation may be more solitary than it once hoped.
STRAIT TALK
As negotiators in Switzerland prepared to discuss the future of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, the absence of both Israel and Lebanon suggests worryingly that Jerusalem had been placed in much the same category as Lebanon’s weak central government — or, more troublingly, is seen as an American proxy much as Hezbollah is Iran’s.
While many in Israel understood that any end to the war would ultimately require American-brokered compromises, the rhetoric coming out of Washington has been strikingly unsympathetic to Israeli concerns.
Vance, who did not mention Israel at all in his opening remarks at the negotiations, has made little effort to hide his impatience with the US’s "very small partner," in the words of his boss US President Donald Trump
...The Hero of Butler, Pennsylvania...
He has dismissed concerns over the memorandum of understanding and emerging nuclear negotiations, telling news hounds he found "this whole freakout in Israel a little bit odd" and a sign of unwarranted "mistrust."
He has argued that "you can’t just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem," urged Israeli critics to "wake up and smell the reality," and, at a recent White House briefing, reminded Jerusalem that Trump is now among the few world leaders openly sympathetic to Israel while noting how much of its arsenal is American-made.
Washington’s growing willingness to pressure Israel in public has boosted the perception that Iran had arrived at these talks carrying the ultimate leverage through the Strait of Hormuz, with Israel seen as an obstacle to getting the vital waterway open.
Wednesday’s MOU dictated no more fighting in Lebanon, but Hezbollah has continued attacking soldiers in the southern Lebanon security zone, prompting retaliatory strikes from Israel.
After Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz shut again on Saturday — citing continued Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon — the talks’ opening session was restructured around the Lebanon question rather than the nuclear file, showing Iran’s ability to use the threat of economic disruption to constrain Israeli military action.
Trump’s willingness to go along with Iran on Lebanon may pave the way to short-term gains on Hormuz. But it hardly serves US strategic interests, argued Robert Satloff, executive director of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
"Acceding to Iran’s demand on [Lebanon] undermines not one but two American allies — democratically elected governments in Beirut and Jerusalem — as well as the longstanding US policy of supporting direct negotiations between the parties," he wrote on X.
"In the process, this lends wholly undeserved support to Iran’s baseless claim that its backing of a terrorist organization — Hezbollah — gives it legitimate standing to determine the fate of Lebanon," he added.
ELECTION TENSION
The fact that both Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are facing upcoming elections — the US is not voting for president this year but so-called midterm elections will determine how much support Trump will have in Congress, as well as foreshadow the 2028 ballot — only heightens the tense political standoff between Jerusalem and Washington, with both leaders seeking largely mutually exclusive goals to sell to their domestic publics.
"In order for Bibi to avoid his worst-case scenario [of losing the election], he needs to keep up a very strong position on Lebanon," said Michael Oren, former Israeli ambassador to Washington, using Netanyahu’s nickname. "And Trump, in order to keep his position, to avoid his nightmare, he has to prevent Bibi" from doing so.
Israel has bit the bullet and accepted diktats from the US in the past, but Oren argued there was a limit to how much Jerusalem would go along with, especially regarding its defense.
"It’s never a question about what Israel can do. It’s what Israel must do. And this country cannot, cannot countenance or endure Hezbollah fire on our soldiers or our civilians," he said. "You’ll have to strike back... this is a paramount strategic interest of the state of Israel."
Still, Iran will likely continue to test how far its leverage over Hormuz can go in Lebanon, and it very well may test whether the same formula can shield Hamas
..the well-beloved offspring of the Moslem Brotherhood,..., the Iran's Houthi sock puppets
...a Zaidi Shia insurgent group operating in Yemen. They have also been referred to as the
Believing Youth. Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi is said to be the spiritual leader of the group and most of the military leaders are his relatives. The legitimate Yemeni government has accused the them of having ties to the Iranian government. Honest they did. The group has managed to gain control over all of Saada Governorate and parts of Amran, Al Jawf and Hajjah Governorates. Its slogan is
God is Great, Death to America™, Death to Israel, a curse on the JewsThey like shooting off... ummm... missiles that they would have us believe they make at home in their basements. On the plus side, they did murder Ali Abdullah Saleh, which was the only way the country was ever going to be rid of him...
s and other regional proxies, or influence future policies in Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about
oppressionand
disproportionate response...
, the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
TOO MANY EGGS IN US BASKET
None of this means Israel’s fight against Iran or its proxies is over.
Whatever comes out of Burgenstock will likely be framed by Trump as a victory as he tries to show he’s in control.
Netanyahu, as he largely has been up until now, will be in the uncomfortable position of deciding how loudly to object to an agreement Israel never signed.
Yet Israel’s exclusion from the talks is not necessarily a liability. If Jerusalem is not formally party to any understanding reached in Switzerland, it can argue that it remains unbound by it — that its military options against Iran’s nuclear program, regional proxies and remaining infrastructure have not been negotiated away.
Washington may even have structured things this way deliberately, to give Israel a plausible distance. There is also the possibility that the public tensions between Trump and Netanyahu mask continued coordination behind the scenes, as they did in previous US-Iran nuclear talks.
But it’s just as likely, if not more so, that Trump is simply eager to find a diplomatic off-ramp for a war that has angered Americans and driven prices up.
And even if negotiations advance, Israel can still realistically hope that Tehran will eventually overplay its hand and force Trump to break off the negotiations, Oren added.
There seems to be no getting around the shift in the broader strategic landscape, though.
The Gulf states have spent months watching the Hormuz crisis unfold and drawing their own conclusions about the durability of American power in the region and the US-Israel security umbrella.
That poses a challenge for the broader logic that underpinned the US-brokered Abraham Accords normalization agreements.
"The cement of the Abraham Accords was the belief in the staying power of American force. And that’s not happening," Oren said, warning that "there’s a greater possibility that Gulf states will start gravitating toward Tehran now."
...the only place on the face of the earth that misses the Ottoman Empire...
, Pakistain, and Qatar are now seen as key regional mediators, and none of them is likely to push policies that benefit Israel.
None of this diminishes the importance of the US-Israel alliance. Military and intelligence ties forged during the war remain deeper than ever. But it does reinforce the need for Israel to broaden its strategic options beyond Washington.
"About 97% of our security purchases are from the United States. And that’s too many eggs in one basket... also in view of what’s happening politically in America, we have to diversify our foreign policy portfolio," Oren said. "It is the only thing we can do."
Washington remains an indispensable ally for Israel. Yet the conditions that made a genuine wartime partnership possible earlier this year may not return anytime soon. The fight to prevent Iran from rebuilding its nuclear and missile capabilities, rearming Hezbollah and other proxies and consolidating its regional gains could continue for years — and with less help than Israel once expected.