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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
'Chaos Factory': Who will win the Erdogan-Netanyahu Cold War?
2026-06-21
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Kamran Gasanov

[REGNUM] Since the IDF's operation in Gaza, which claimed tens of thousands of lives, Israel has become Turkey's number one enemy. Israeli experts, meanwhile, believe that after Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, Ankara poses the most serious threat to their country's security.

A curious fact: when the State of Israel was founded, its main threats came from Arab countries—Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, and even Saudi Arabia. Today, its main rivals are Shiite Iran, with its network of proxies from Lebanon to Yemen, and Sunni Turkic Türkiye.
That’s because the Arab countries repeatedly blunted their teeth on Israel, and have learnt better. Whether or not the IRGC has yet absorbed the same lesson, they’ve still been pretty thoroughly disarmed for the moment.
Although Israel has no direct experience of clashes with Turkey, the level of mutual rhetorical aggression is similar to that maintained by countries at war. It could be said that Ankara and Tel Aviv are waging a cold war.
Turkey is waging a direct proxy war via the Hamas planners they’re hosting and, of course, the regular Gaza flotillas full of idiots they send off with such fanfare. Warm, rather than cold or hot.
Recently, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hurled yet another barrage of insults at the Israeli prime minister.

"Those who follow in Hitler's footsteps will end up like all tyrants throughout history," he said, referring to Benjamin Netanyahu and his war crimes in the Gaza Strip. "Under the current administration, Israel is nothing more than a factory churning out instability and chaos," he added.

Comparing any of their politicians to Hitler offends Israelis in much the same way that accusations of mass murder of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire offend Turks. Incidentally, Netanyahu, who has long and steadfastly refused to recognize the Armenian Genocide, broke with this consensus in an interview.

As expected, Netanyahu's office didn't let Erdoğan's attack go unanswered. This time, he reminded him not of the Armenians, but of the Kurds, which is no less painful for Turkey's Justice and Development Party, especially at a time when it has launched a process of disarming the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and reconciling with Turkey's Kurds.

"The anti-Semitic dictator Erdogan, who commits genocide against the Kurds, supports the terrorist organization Hamas, oppresses his own people and imprisons political opponents, is the last one who can preach morality to the State of Israel," the Netanyahu administration said in a statement.

The day before, Erdogan called the Israeli government a "criminal network" that is posing a threat to Turkey with its attacks in Syria and Lebanon. It's difficult to be definitive about Lebanon, as it's not Erdogan's "office," but Iran's. The Islamic Republic stands behind Hezbollah.

But Syria is truly Turkey's domain. Israel occupies the Golan Heights and periodically launches forays into the southern provinces or bombs Damascus and former Iranian, now Turkish, bases in the remaining provinces.
I wondered what they’d been bombing in Syria. The latest report didn’t say, just that they’d been busy there.
Israel is a nuclear state. Turkey has a large army, and Erdogan is trying to strengthen it with modern military equipment. New frigates and fighter jets are being built. Turkey's first intercontinental ballistic missile, the Yildirimhan, and its first aircraft carrier, the MUGEM, are under construction.

If you look at the map, the frontline between Turkey and Israel is quite extensive. It includes Syria and Palestine, where Erdogan supports Hamas. It also includes the so-called "Kurdistan."

During the Iranian campaign, Israeli intelligence Mossad tried to involve the Iraqi Kurds (PJAK) in the war against the ayatollah regime, but Ankara thwarted these plans by threatening to strike them if they attacked Tehran.
Ahhh. I’d wondered what happened there.
In strategically important Somalia on the Gulf of Oman (the gateway to the Red Sea), Turkey supports the official authorities and has its largest military base abroad, while Israel has recognized Somaliland and projects its influence there.
And Israel apparently has quietly based a small unit in Somaliland for a bit, unbeknown to either Somalia or Turkey. Heaven only knows what mischief they’ve been getting up to…
In an interview, Yeditepe University geopolitics professor Furkan Kaya outlined the details of the plan to create a "Greater Israel." The first component is establishing control over water sources (the Litania and Jordan rivers) and energy hubs in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Uh huh. Quite unlike the work Sultan Recep Tayip Erdogan I “the much beloved” has been doing to reassemble the Ottoman empire, amirite?
The second is the expansion of the Leviathan gas field (which is the purpose of destabilizing Lebanon) and the construction of the Ben-Gurion Canal from Gaza to the Gulf of Aqaba.
The what?? First I’ve heard of that!
And finally, the implementation of the "Kurdistan project" through support for the PKK and YPG.

The entire Eastern Mediterranean region can be added to the listed fronts of confrontation. Cyprus, Greece, and Israel are forming a military alliance aimed at containing Turkey and advancing energy projects, such as the EastMed gas pipeline.

Israel is reacting nervously to Turkish lawmakers' attempts to legislate the "Blue Homeland" concept, which aims to restore Turkey's former influence in the Mediterranean, Aegean, and Black Seas.
See? There’s the neo-Ottoman thing again.
Israeli media see the project as a tool for transforming Turkey into a dominant regional power, capable of controlling key maritime routes between the Black and Mediterranean Seas and gaining access to the energy resources of the Eastern Mediterranean.
Ya think?
According to their assessment, Ankara is not only promoting this doctrine, but also reinforcing it with a military and political presence in Syria, Libya and the Horn of Africa, forming a strategic arc of influence from Greece to Yemen.
Such insight, those Israeli analysts — able to see the nose on their face.
"Turkey's rise as a dominant power poses a complex and unprecedented challenge for Israel," says a report on Israeli television channel Channel 13.

Turkey is a NATO member, the bloc's southeastern flank, a window on the Middle East and an important player in the Black and Mediterranean Seas, as well as in Syria, and this factor limits Israel's options.
About that. Why are we keeping Turkey in NATO again? They’re less helpful than France or Spain, nowadays.
The United States is also holding back the escalation of the conflict: while Trump criticizes Netanyahu behind closed doors for the attacks in Lebanon, he does so publicly for the escalation with Turkey in Syria.
But he doesn’t criticize Turkey, which definitely deserves it.
Since the outbreak of the war in Iran, energy flows have become a new source of competition between Turkey and Israel. Both Erdogan and Netanyahu are proposing to create alternative oil and gas supply routes to the Strait of Hormuz. Israel is proposing to revive the IMEC project, while Türkiye is proposing to build gas and oil pipelines through Syria.

To be fair, despite the mutual hostility and long-standing threats, neither side wants to allow a direct confrontation. It's worth noting that the latest report from Turkey's National Intelligence Organization (MIT) notes that the 40-day war between the US and Israel against Iran has changed the balance of power in the Middle East.

Turkish politicians, witnessing the aggression against Iran, said that Turkey could be the next target. Therefore, they needed to strengthen their military-industrial complex, air defense systems, and the protection of critical infrastructure. And this refers to potential attacks from not only Iran but also Israel.
Why would Iran attack Turkey?
However, despite growing strategic competition, the MİT strongly recommended that its government maintain channels of communication with the Jewish state.
The better to communicate their insults to Bibi’s shell-like ear? Goody.

I searched the Ben Gurion Canal, and discovered it’s a thing:
From May in the Jerusalem Post: Israel needs a Suez alternative, the Ben-Gurion Canal offers one
The Ben-Gurion Canal would give the world a new trade route while boosting Israel’s economy and strategic power.
And from early 2024 in the Times of Israel: The Ben Gurion Canal: Vision Amidst Upheaval


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