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Terror Networks
Report on the evolution of the Islamic State in the Sahel
2026-06-18
[SoufanCenter] The Islamic State (IS) has been active in the Sahel region for more than a decade and has entered a new phase as it seeks to consolidate its territorial control in the region. Since 2022, the strategic goal of IS has been to consolidate its two most powerful affiliates in Africa, the West Africa and Sahel Provinces. The U.S. strikes in Nigeria’s northern state of Sokoto, on the border with Niger, on December 25, 2025, and the joint U.S.-Nigerian operation that killed Abu Bilal al-Minuki, an important figure in Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), on May 16, 2026, attest to the growing threat posed by these provinces. The two operations serve a necessary aim: countering the group by severing the links between West Africa and the Sahel province and working to contain terrorist violence in a region engulfed by jihadist activity and a war between al-Qaeda (AQ) and the IS affiliates.

Although AQ’s Sahelian affiliate Jamaa’t Nusra’t al-islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) remains the most dominant jihadist force in the Sahel, contested only by Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP) in Mali’s Ménaka region and northeast Burkina Faso, the IS affiliate has demonstrated significant and growing operational capabilities since 2019.

That year, it demonstrated the ability to maintain a high operational tempo with deadly attacks in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. It also marked the first battles between ISSP and JNIM, which continue to occur on and off and ebb and flow in terms of intensity. Since then, ISSP has continued to expand its footprint and, in January 2026, with its deadly attack on Niamey’s international airport, demonstrated its expanding capabilities to strike hard targets.

More at the link. Report is in pdf format.
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Posted by:badanov

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