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| Science & Technology |
| Sleepwalking into instability: Nuclear-weapons risks in the Asia-Pacific |
| 2026-06-13 |
| [IISS] This chapter analyses recent developments in nuclear weaponry and the related strategic issues in the Asia-Pacific. ARGUMENTS AND FINDINGS The risk of nuclear conflict is rising, with the world on the cusp of a nuclear-arms race – if not already in the early stages of one – with the Asia-Pacific at its centre. Regional states and those with strategic interests are undertaking quantitative or qualitative expansion of their nuclear arsenals, while non-nuclear-weapons states pursue a variety of long-range conventional-strike capabilities. Both are challenging strategic stability. The growth of China’s military capabilities – both nuclear and conventional – as well as North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal continue to determine the assertive force postures and procurement responses of regional states and the United States. The risk of nuclear proliferation (non-nuclear-armed states pursuing nuclear weapons) is also growing, as regional states reassess their worsening security situations and question their reliance on existing security guarantees. In turn, they might be more likely to pursue any sensitive nuclear-development work in secrecy. IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL SECURITY The growth of capabilities – nuclear weapons and delivery systems, long-range conventional-strike capabilities and ballistic-missile defence (BMD) systems – as the various nuclear dyads and triads of the region compete could be a source of regional arms-race instability. The growth of conventional-weapons capabilities designed to bolster deterrence, such as long-range conventional strikes, including hypersonic missiles and missile defence, may inadvertently undermine deterrence and mutual vulnerability and raise the risk of crisis instability. More at the link |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #1 |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2026-06-13 10:23 |