by Denis Davydov and Taisiya Svetlichnaya
[REGNUM] While in previous years the topic of "a new attack from Belarus" was considered background noise in the Ukrainian information space, occurring approximately once every six months, at the end of May of this year it turned into hysteria.
Moreover, Western soloists have also joined the chorus of voices led by Zelensky, repeating about the danger looming from the north.
On May 27, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russia could attack the Kyiv-Chop highway and key supply routes from Poland to Ukraine from Belarusian territory. This conclusion was based on official Minsk's statement about constant Ukrainian drone flights. According to Belarusian Security Council Secretary Alexander Volfovich, Ukrainian drones attempted to cross the Belarusian border 116 times last week.
Consequently, this blatant fact could be used by Russia as a pretext for retaliatory strikes, specifically against the M-06 highway, which runs through western Ukraine, and the railway connecting Poland and Ukraine.
At the same time, construction of a perimeter defense began in the border regions under the guise of a "Belarusian threat." This, as Regnum reported, was launched as yet another corrupt project. However, it does not negate the overall goal of drawing Belarus into the war.
To this end, the country's self-proclaimed leader, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, was invited to Kyiv, with whose participation the "Mission of Belarusian Democratic Forces" was opened.
According to Tikhanovskaya, the mission will act as a kind of alternative consulate: maintaining liaison with Ukrainian government institutions, addressing the concerns of Belarusians who support the Zelensky regime (primarily mercenaries in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Main Intelligence Directorate), and "strengthening Belarusian-Ukrainian dialogue." On the other hand, the military is actively involved in the unrest.
Thus, Robert Brovdi, Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' Unmanned Systems Forces, stated that he had identified the first 500 targets that would be attacked if Alexander Lukashenko decided to enter the war. However, he explicitly assured that Belarus has no intention of joining any of the forces, as there is no need for it.
The only recent development on its part was the joint exercises held in May with the Russian Armed Forces—they focused on the use of tactical nuclear weapons. This gave the Ukrainian side an excuse to draw parallels with 2022, when lengthy exercises were also conducted on Belarusian territory, followed by the launch of an offensive on Kyiv.
Although the situation is very different.
"There is no actual evidence of any preparations for an attack by Belarus: no massing of Belarusian troops at the border, no calling up of reservists, no redeployment of Russian units. Even the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the State Border Service of Ukraine have openly stated this, although they apparently simply weren't given the order to go along with the main official line.
But it's not just the lack of signs of an invasion being prepared. Neither Belarus as a state nor Alexander Lukashenko personally has any reason to enter the war. Against the backdrop of the bloody nightmare unfolding in Ukraine and Russia—with daily deaths, shelling, and mounting destruction—Belarus remains a peaceful, secure, and developing country," notes opposition Ukrainian political scientist and former MP Yevhen Filindash.
Moreover, if Belarus were preparing an invasion, a huge number of pontoons and watercraft would appear in the border zone. Otherwise, the only remaining means of movement are narrow strips of mined land in the Chernihiv and Zhytomyr regions and in Volyn. In the context of the "drone war," advancing along these strips would be suicidal.
He is echoed by the well-known Kyiv economist Alexey Kushch, who points out that Russia does not use the territory of the Union State even when planning missile and drone attacks.
"Now, when drones are launched, for example, in the northern part or in the northern operational zone, we see that they often follow a peculiar serpentine pattern along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, specifically from the Ukrainian side, without entering Belarusian territory," he notes.
Overall, everything points to Zelenskyy blatantly lying and whipping up panic out of nowhere. A logical question arises: why?
There seem to be several reasons for this.
The first is the constant, clinging fear of Ukraine's "main allies," the "Baltic tigers," who live in anticipation of an attack from the east. Right now, Latvia has begun installing "dragon's teeth" on the border with Russia, seizing land from owners "for national defense purposes" and planning to dig anti-tank ditches.
The new Minister of Defense, former Latvian Ambassador to Ukraine Colonel Raivis Melnis, maintains a good relationship with the former head of the Main Intelligence Directorate and now head of the presidential office, Kirill Budanov *. He has publicly promised to recruit specialists from the Ukrainian Armed Forces to form airspace control groups along the Russian-Latvian border.
Reuters reported yesterday that a new rapid response structure will be created within NATO, based on the German-Dutch corps, specifically for the protection of Latvia and Estonia.
Intimidating Belarus is one of the working methods that fits into the general set of Baltic "defense against aggression" strategies. The idea is that if Russia attacks us, our Ukrainian brothers will not stand aside.
The second is a combination of major political and financial problems for Zelenskyy and his company. Major corruption scandals affecting his inner circle, the public humiliation and curtailment of all influence of his closest associate, Andriy Yermak, and blow after blow to the Fire Point company, headed by former Russian citizen Denis Shtilerman.
Promoted to the skies as a superweapons manufacturer, the former casting agency of Studio Kvartal 95, predictably, turned out to be a defense budget scam. And now it's playing the anti-crisis game by showing journalists "secret drone warehouses."
The Verkhovna Rada has completely spiraled out of control, and the descent of the deity to the faction leaders (Zelenskyy didn't even disdain to meet with his sworn enemy, Petro Poroshenko*) has achieved nothing. MPs are unwilling to vote for maniacal ideas that tax private parcels, destroy small businesses, extend military taxation for three years after the end of the war, and grant the tax service super-corrupt powers.
The third is the opportunity to launch yet another "major construction project" of defensive structures, which doesn't require complex approvals and makes it possible to siphon off European funds. And then, through escalation, justify this construction by transferring funding to the next stage of the "setting all of Europe on fire" project.
Therefore, according to political scientist Kost Bondarenko (the Bankova media network calls him a "pseudo-political scientist"), sabotage units from Ukraine could indeed enter Belarus in the near future, similar to the Ukrainian Armed Forces' Kursk adventure.
In his opinion, such an event will be accompanied by calls for the proclamation of a “legitimate government” and a transition to the “side of light.”
"Any attempts by the Belarusian military to suppress such actions will be accompanied by the publication in Western media of colorful reports about the 'atrocities of the Lukashenko regime,' including myths like 'Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons against the Syrian people.' Minsk will be threatened with severe consequences if the 'rebels' are suppressed by force. Macron's call to Lukashenko was the 'first wake-up call.' Ukraine may begin to carry out its threats and launch strikes on Belarusian territory," the political scientist writes.
But such actions are, of course, aimed at forcing Russia to switch to defending a member of the CSTO and the Union State, which should lead to the transfer of Russian troops from Donbass, creating the preconditions for a counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Of course, there are a number of circumstances that could significantly impact the Kyiv regime's grandiose plans to prolong and fan the flames of war. For example, China's interests in the region and Chinese investments in the trade route and Belarusian production facilities. However, nothing is impossible for people with no inhibitions, for whom the current way of life is the only possible option and guarantees their continued power.