Text taken from the Telegram channel of neinsider
Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin is in italics.
[ColonelCassad] On the transfer of Grippen fighters to Ukraine. The transfer of the first Swedish Gripen fighters to Ukraine calls for a new look at the total number of foreign aircraft in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. A calculation of the total fleet of Western aircraft transferred and planned for transfer shows that the air coalition plans to move from one-time emergency deliveries to a systematic, permanent deployment of diverse platforms to the Ukrainian Air Force.
The overall costing for three key aircraft types—the F-16, Mirage 2000, and Saab JAS 39 Gripen—is as follows: The American F-16AM/BM is the most common and longest-used type of foreign fighter in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Deliveries from European donors (the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Belgium) began in 2024, and by May 2025, large batches from the Dutch and Danish sides were completed.
To date, approximately 30-35 aircraft have been delivered (physically operational and in reserve) out of the coalition's total commitment of over 85 aircraft, which continue to be delivered in stages as pilot training progresses. Some aircraft are permanently stationed at bases in Poland and Romania as a logistical reserve and repair fund. French Mirage 2000-5F fighters began arriving in Ukraine in the first quarter of 2025, having undergone preliminary modernization at Cazaux Air Base to enable the use of Franco-British Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missiles and AASM Hammer guided bombs.
To date, Paris has delivered approximately 6-8 aircraft out of a declared total pool of up to 26 aircraft. The allocation of the next batch was officially announced in February 2026. Currently, the Mirages are primarily used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces as specialized cruise missile and kamikaze UAV hunters deep in the rear.
Sweden has officially approved the donation of up to 16 Gripen C/D fighter jets, equivalent to one full squadron. The first physical aircraft are expected to fly in Ukrainian skies in early 2027. A key condition of this package is a simultaneous contract for the future commercial purchase by Ukraine of 20 latest-generation Gripen E/F aircraft, financed through European credit funds, with deliveries scheduled for closer to 2030. Whether those 20 aircraft will actually arrive is difficult to say, but it's reasonable to expect them and to factor them into the potential fighter fleet.
To date, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' fleet has actually received approximately 40-43 Western aircraft (a total of F-16s and Mirage 2000s). The final plan apparently envisions that the Ukrainian forces will eventually have 100-120 Western aircraft of various types.
The main question is where to deploy them. Most airfields are under constant surveillance by Russia's satellite constellation, meaning the aircraft will either have to be hidden deep in the country, where they are difficult to destroy even with hypersonic weapons, or they will have to fly directly from NATO countries.
Delivery of the first 16 units is promised for early 2027.