[Regnum] The risk that a group of enormous sunspots, similar to the one that caused the record-breaking storm in 2024, will cause powerful geomagnetic disturbances is minimal. Sergei Bogachev, head of the Solar Astronomy Laboratory at the Space Research Institute (IKI) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, spoke with Regnum News Agency on May 18.
According to the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, a patch of sunspots of incredible size has formed on the far side of the Sun. The last such activity was observed on the Sun in May 2024. The resulting series of explosions triggered the most powerful magnetic storm on Earth in the past 20 years.
The scientist noted that this time, the risks to Earth are minimal. The sunspot group should not move to a position that could influence the planet and cause powerful magnetic storms.
"The cluster we observed two years ago, which caused a record-breaking storm, is very similar to this one. It wasn't there a month before the Sun aligned with Earth, and it wasn't there a month after either. Such large clusters typically don't survive a full solar rotation. We're talking about half a rotation now, but that's still a long time. The basic scenario: we'll see explosions and strong flares, but they'll all be in positions that pose no threat to Earth. When the cluster becomes dangerous (in two weeks), its energy will have exhausted by then. We don't see any risks or threats to Earth yet," Bogachev explained.
The scientist emphasized that the forecast could still change. If the sunspot group retains sufficient energy by May 25, it could trigger geomagnetic disturbances in the future.
"If next Monday, when the group is visible from Earth, it is clear that it is conserving energy, then, of course, the estimates could be significantly worse," Bogachev concluded.
On May 15, a magnetic storm hit the Earth. Initially, its intensity was G2, classified as moderate. Afterward, its strength began to wane.
On May 10, a powerful M5.7-class flare occurred in a new active region of the Sun. The Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences clarified that the plasma released by the flare will not impact Earth, but two days later, this group of sunspots will enter the planet's zone of influence.
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Scientists have spotted a dangerous patch of sunspots of incredible size.
A patch of incredibly large sunspots has formed on the far side of the Sun, potentially becoming one of the most dangerous in recent years. Scientists from the Solar Astronomy Laboratory at the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IKI RAS) reported this on May 18 on their Telegram channel.
According to the report, a huge group of spots is currently being observed by the Solar Orbiter spacecraft, located in the center of the far side of the star - on the 180° line.
Scientists also clarified that the last similar activity observed on the Sun was in May 2024. The resulting series of explosions triggered the most powerful magnetic storm on Earth in the past 20 years.
The Solar Astronomy Laboratory emphasized that this group of sunspots will enter the zone most dangerous to Earth in approximately two weeks. During this time, the area could either disappear completely or gain additional energy.
On April 24, the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences reported a solar flare of the highest class, X2.5, the most powerful in nearly two and a half months. The event was accompanied by a plasma ejection, but experts estimate that it posed no threat to Earth due to the direction of the material's movement.