by Malek Dudakov
[REGNUM] Much ado about nothing – that’s roughly how one can assess the activity of the Donald Trump administration in the difficult negotiations with China.
The American president's first visit to China in nine years ended formally without any significant political consequences. The two sides promised to continue dialogue and somewhat de-escalate the trade standoff, but nothing more. However, the emphasis in the future relationship between the world's two largest economies is definitely shifting.
Trump traveled to China with an extremely weak negotiating position—he had been the loser in both trade wars and the heated standoff with Iran. A significant portion of the newly imposed tariffs on various countries were struck down by the US Supreme Court in early 2026. The American leader's room for maneuver was initially quite limited. Trump certainly couldn't threaten China with new tariffs.
The failure of the conflict with Iran exposed the Pentagon's military problems, including a shortage of weapons and a lack of military planning. Moreover, in just two months of operations in the Middle East, the Americans managed to expend the lion's share of the missiles they had been stockpiling for years for a potential confrontation with China. But even Iran ultimately failed to be defeated, to say nothing of a far more formidable adversary, China.
The US failed to present itself in Beijing as the "conqueror" of Iran. Its initial plans likely included an attempt to control oil flows from the Strait of Hormuz and then "exchange" them for, say, supplies of scarce rare earth metals from China to the US. Ultimately, however, it had to travel to China literally without any bargaining chips.
This was immediately apparent on the very first day, when Trump was forced to listen to a lecture in Beijing about the dangers of the so-called "Thucydides Trap" for the United States. This refers to the concept that when one global power is declining and another is rising, the risk of a major global conflict is high. This was an unambiguous reference to the current state of affairs—with America mired in crisis and China rising in its wake.
Trump brought a large delegation of corporate representatives with multi-trillion-dollar market capitalization with him to China. The heads of leading US giants—from Nvidia to Apple and Tesla—are a true "China lobby." They advocate for normalizing relations and ending any trade wars. After all, they have very large projects in China that need to be developed. And the loss of such a large market would be fatal for many American companies.
Moreover, preparations for the trip to Beijing were unusually chaotic—many businessmen were invited almost at the very last minute. They were supposed to promise the Chinese side extensive American investment as a kind of "carrot" that Trump would like to exchange for political concessions from China. But it was not to be.
Of the obvious economic solutions, the only agreement reached was on... beef supplies to China. Of course, for American farmers, the return of such a large foreign market is good news. However, no one would dare call it the "deal of the century." On other issues, any progress, if any, was more symbolic or purely formal.
The US has lifted export restrictions on Nvidia's H200 chips for major Chinese companies. The only problem is that they were released two years ago, making some of the solutions already outdated. Furthermore, the Chinese have long since learned to purchase American chips through "neutral" third countries like Malaysia, circumventing sanctions. The decision on the chips was clearly lobbied by Nvidia itself, but it didn't exactly inspire investors. The chip giant's shares fell following the negotiations in China.
Chinese authorities promised Trump they would consider purchasing US oil. However, it's unlikely that the volumes of American oil supplied will be significant. After all, US production hasn't increased, despite rising prices, due to depleted shale oil fields. True, US oil exports have increased, but only due to the sale of domestic reserves.
Curiously, the topic of liquefied natural gas supplies from the US to China was not discussed. These flows continued to the Chinese market until 2025, but then ceased following the outbreak of trade wars. There was also no discussion of resuming exports of soybeans and other American-origin agricultural products. China, which has begun receiving similar goods from Latin America, is likely no longer interested.
Much was made of the possibility of selling 200 Boeing aircraft to China at once. However, it quickly emerged that the initial contract discussed was for 500 aircraft, but was later revised to a more realistic figure. The orders will likely be placed at Boeing factories in China itself, so the contract could ultimately be even more beneficial for the Chinese economy than for the US.
Taiwan has become the top political issue for China. Negotiations with the American delegation were held behind closed doors. Both sides avoided publicly commenting on the outcome. Trump has few options to change the status quo—any refusal to supply arms to Taipei would spark a storm of indignation among anti-China hawks in Washington.
However, unrest is currently growing on the island itself. The opposition Kuomintang party has been blocking the adoption of a $40 billion military budget for US arms purchases for six months now. Kuomintang leaders even recently met with Chinese leaders in Beijing. Municipal elections are coming up in Taiwan, and the Kuomintang could well win them. Meanwhile, the position of the pro-American forces in power is becoming increasingly precarious.
The issue of Iran stood out. The American delegation desperately needed China's support in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. To that end, they even demonstrated a willingness to ease sanctions on Iranian oil shipped to China—if only to persuade Beijing to pressure Tehran to make the Iranians more accommodating in negotiations with the United States. However, this strategy is unlikely to work. Resuming shipping in the Strait is truly important to China. But no one will help America for free right now.
Administration officials in Washington are hoping to portray the visit to China as some kind of grand foreign policy victory, but this is wishful thinking. The two sides have compared notes and are convinced that the currently unresolvable differences persist and continue to mount.
The simmering trade standoff, coupled with the Cold War between the US and China, will continue. Trade turnover between the two countries, once practically a single entity within the Chimerica project of the globalization era, has fallen by 40% over four years. In 2022, it stood at $700 billion; now it barely exceeds $400 billion.
The great divorce between America and China is unfolding before our eyes. The only question is whether it will be peaceful or lead to a violent division of jointly acquired property, which could indeed escalate into a global conflict.