Text by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin
[ColonelCassad] The US and Iran have failed to reach an agreement.
| A misapprehension: Iran has failed to surrender. So the siege continues. |
2. Iran, meanwhile, continues to legally assert control over the Strait of Hormuz. Some countries de facto recognize this control and use Iranian-established procedures for passage, thereby effectively confirming Iranian control.
3. The partial blockade of Iranian ports remains in place, but it operates in a very strange way: some ships pass, while others, including Iranian ones, do not.
4. The low-intensity tanker war continues, with several damaged or captured ships per week. This has little effect on the main flow of ships, but the parties are actively pursuing escalation scenarios, responding with blow for blow, seizure for seizure.
5. The Gulf states' proposals to sign a non-aggression pact with Iran will obviously not work as long as US and Israeli bases and troops are present on their territory. In the event of any escalation, Iran will, as usual, strike any US or Israeli targets within reach, and no pact will help. The pact could work if the signatory country removes US bases from its territory, and its airspace and territory are not used to attack Iran. This is unlikely at this stage. Even the US can't be completely expelled from Iraq, and NATO members fled with their tails between their legs after the attacks started.
Overall, the potential for escalation is quite high, especially since time is against Trump. The elections are rapidly approaching, and the unresolved conflict with Iran is playing against him in domestic politics, where failure to attack Iran is currently a major topic for democratic and globalist media. In China, Trump essentially asked China to help end the war so that the US could save face. But China is unlikely to force Iran to do anything unacceptable. And the Strait of Hormuz is already open to Chinese ships.
Israel, US readying for renewed strikes on Iran for as early as next week — report
[IsraelTimes] Israel and the United States are undergoing the most intense preparations since last month’s ceasefire for renewed attacks on Iran, seeking to be ready as early as next week, The New York Times reports, citing two Middle East officials.
According to US officials, one of the options for an operation would include putting commandos on the ground to extract nuclear material buried under rubble.
Such a complicated operation would risk several casualties, as it would require thousands of supporting forces to create a perimeter around an operations area, and likely engage with Iranian ground troops, military officials tell the Times.
Troops could also be used to conquer Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub in the Persian Gulf, officials add.
Another option would include more intense bombing of Iranian military and infrastructure sites, US officials say.
Israel launched its campaign against Iran, alongside the US, to degrade the Iranian regime’s military capabilities, distance threats posed by Iran — including its nuclear and ballistic missile programs — and “create the conditions” for the Iranian people to topple the regime, the military and other Israeli leaders have said.
The ceasefire reached last month has left those declared goals unfulfilled.