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The Grand Turk

With the Strait of Hormuz closed, Erdogan is turning Turkey into the hub of all routes

2026-05-05

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Kamran Gasanov

[REGNUM] Of all the regional countries, Turkey suffered the least from the Iran war. True, a couple of missiles were launched at its territory (though the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps denies any involvement). However, there was no damage to civilian or industrial facilities. Moreover, Ankara maintained dialogue with Tehran, and tensions with the latter were avoided.

The situation that has developed since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and the escalation of Sunni-Shiite tensions has created a new reality in the region, one that Turkey could exploit. Countries trapped in the Persian Gulf are frantically seeking routes around the mined and shelled strait, which, in the long term, will be a toll strait.

Or not, as the case may be. But if it is, I’d bet it won’t be the Mullahs of Iran collecting the tolls.

The entire traditional route between Europe and Asia has become unsafe and unreliable. Another important artery, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, is controlled by the Houthis. And if Donald Trump resumes his war with Iran,

…when, surely…

this route could also be closed. Turkey is proposing an alternative: building pipelines to Europe through its territory and developing land routes through Turkish territory to the Gulf states.

RAILWAY LINE
The project to revive the dilapidated Hejaz Railway was actually discussed before the recent war in Iran, but has now taken on added urgency. Saudi Arabia and Türkiye are actively discussing it.

Saudi Transport Minister Saleh al-Jasser said joint studies on the line through Jordan and Syria would be completed by the end of 2026, strengthening regional integration and trade.

In April, the relevant ministers of Turkey, Syria, and Jordan signed a memorandum in Amman, providing for the creation of a three-year roadmap and working groups. Turkey has already financed the restoration of 30 kilometers of road in Syrian territory, and the first truck from Jordan has passed through Syria to Turkey.

The railway, of course, won't replace sea routes. After all, a typical tanker carries over a million barrels of oil. Such a volume would require a gigantic train of 8,000-10,000 tank cars. However, the Saudis could transport exports such as metals, fertilizers (Saudi Arabia is a leader in this area), and food via the Hejaz Railway. For Turkey, it would open the gateway to the Red Sea and further to the Indian Ocean, and in peacetime, the route to the Persian Gulf countries.

It's worth noting that during World War I, Arab tribes, along with the British and Lawrence of Arabia, persistently destroyed the Hejaz Road to cut off the Ottomans' access to Medina. But today, this route has proven useful to them, and Ankara is reclaiming the positions lost to Istanbul in its former possessions. The plan includes Jordan and Syria, where Turkish influence has grown since Assad's overthrow.

QATARI GAS
Roads are roads, but the main task of the Gulf monarchies is to find a worthy replacement for oil and gas supplies.

While the UAE still has access to the open ocean via Fujairah, and Saudi Arabia has ports on the Red Sea, Qatar's situation is completely hopeless.

And so Doha decided to recall a project discussed and almost agreed upon before the outbreak of the civil war in Syria: a 2,000-kilometer gas pipeline through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria to Turkey. The pipeline would connect the vast North/South Pars fields with the Turkish gas transmission system and then deliver gas to Europe.

According to estimates from companies from Turkey, Qatar, Italy, the Netherlands, and Germany developing the idea in the early 2000s, the pipeline could supply up to 40–45 billion cubic meters annually. Considering that EU gas imports in 2025 amounted to just over 300 billion cubic meters, the capacity of the Qatar-Turkey pipeline is quite significant. This represents approximately 14% of the EU's total imports.

Europeans, determined to completely abandon Russian gas, would readily rejoin the project. Previously, it was hampered by Bashar al-Assad, who preferred the Iran-Iraq-Syria route, and there was no embargo on imports from Russia. Now these obstacles have been removed, allowing Turkey to press the EU's weak point. Especially since it is European countries that are suffering the most from the Hormuz closure.

THE ROAD TO DEVELOPMENT IN IRAQ
Iraq has similar opportunities, and it would also benefit from an alternative to Hormuz.

Turkey and Iraq have begun to draw closer over the past two years. In April 2024, the Turkish president visited Baghdad for the first time in 12 years. Together with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, he signed a memorandum of understanding between Iraq, Turkey, Qatar, and the UAE regarding cooperation on the "Development Road" project, connecting Istanbul with the port of Basra.

Its advantage over the Qatari and Saudi Arabian projects is that Iraq and Turkey are implementing it jointly, without intermediaries. There is a direct border. The corridor, including a railway and a highway, will stretch 1,200 km from Basra to Istanbul. The cost is estimated at $17 billion.

The plan could attract foreign investment to Iraq. Iraq can also export petroleum products by road, but pipelines are needed to create a viable alternative to Hormuz.

Baghdad is very interested in this. Desperate, Iraqi leaders recently organized oil shipments through Syria. A traffic jam stretching tens of kilometers, consisting entirely of fuel tankers, formed on the Syrian-Iraqi border.

CENTRAL ASIA AND THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
Donald Trump is also helping Turkey develop alternatives to Hormuz. Last year, he announced the creation of a corridor from Azerbaijan to Armenia and Turkey, called the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP).

The Financial Times reported in April that Turkey had stepped up efforts in this direction and was planning to soon reopen its border with Armenia, closed for over 30 years. However, unlike the aforementioned projects, TRIPP does not aim to replace the Hormuz pipeline. After all, it is easier for Arab countries to build roads and pipelines directly to Turkey through Iraq, Jordan, and Syria. Nevertheless, the importance of new pipelines is increasing with the closure of old ones.

Bloomberg recently noted that the Arabs' inability to export their oil is increasing the importance of Central Asian energy resources. While China has direct access to the region, and four pipelines deliver Turkmen gas to China, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia, and Armenia serve as Central Asia's gateway to Europe. Opening the "Trump corridor" requires a final resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, and this largely depends on the outcome of the parliamentary elections in Armenia this summer.

It appears the war in Iran could accelerate the implementation of existing transport and energy projects through Turkey and launch new ones. These will help Recep Tayyip Erdoğan transform the country into an economic hub and provide a boost to the struggling economy.

If Russia can integrate into these new communications, it will benefit. After all, Turkey remains a hub for parallel imports and exports during the NWO. If it succeeds in joining TRIPP, Russia could gain access to markets in the Persian Gulf and throughout the Middle East.

The ideal option for Moscow was the North-South project, which bypasses NATO countries, and tying Central Asian resources to Turkey poses a threat to Russia.

Posted by:badanov

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