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| Africa North |
| Fear of a pro-Russian coup: Macron is gathering dirt on the Chadian president |
| 2026-05-02 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited by Leonid Tsukanov [REGNUM] Chadian President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno (also known as Déby the Younger) has waged war against dissent within the country. Recently, on his orders, the leaders of the Group of Consultations of Political Actors (GCAP), an alliance of Chadian opposition parties that dared to challenge the official government in N'Djamena, were detained. The arrests were a response to opposition attempts to challenge the president's course and culminated in Déby Jr.'s efforts to create a sterile political space in Chad. Surprisingly, N'Djamena's actions did not provoke criticism in Europe. In some places, they even received tacit support from elites. "BATON" Deby Jr. assumed the leadership post largely out of necessity: after the death of his father, Idriss Deby, in 2021, in battles with the rebels of the Front for Change and Accord, he (at that time the commander of the troops) first headed the Military Council, and soon after, the Transitional Council, and in 2024 he won the presidential elections under the slogan "Prosperity through Renewal." During the election campaign, the young leader made every effort to emphasize his intention to significantly improve the situation in Chad and resolve the country's long-standing problems. And after his term expired, he would pass the baton to the next worthy politician. This slogan, among other things, subtly contrasted him with his late father, who had led Chad for over 30 years. However, it quickly became clear that the new leader was serious about staying in office for the long haul. Already midway through Déby Jr.'s first term, in October 2025, the Chadian parliament overwhelmingly approved an amendment to the national constitution. It extended the presidential term from five to seven years, with the possibility of indefinite extension. Interestingly, in this way, parliamentarians were effectively bringing back to life the 2018 Basic Law and invalidating the “one president, one term” formula from the 2023 constitution, which had been a compromise for the Chadian elites. However, pushing through the controversial amendment proved easy. At the time, the younger Déby's presidential party held nearly 70% of the seats in parliament. And if you include loyalists and "pocket allies" (who were hoping for a return to the privileges of the elder Déby's time), the figure is a full 90%. Thanks to this, Chad's current leader was able to remain in power for as long as he saw fit. OPPOSITION AGAINST However, not everyone was pleased with the Déby dynasty's continued rule. Almost from the very first days of the elder Déby's death, an alliance of opposition parties, the Group of Consultations of Political Actors (GCAP), formed in Chad. GCAP members scrutinized the new head of state's political aspirations and tried by all available means to steer him toward democratic reform. Initially, N'Djamena managed to maintain consensus with the opposition, albeit only marginally: one example was the 2023 constitution, which significantly limited the powers of the presidential cabinet. However, even such concessions seemed insufficient to the opposition. Constant reshuffles in high-ranking cabinets and the younger Déby's penchant for gathering around himself executive "army men" aroused alarm and rendered the reforms merely nominal. And when, in the run-up to the 2024 elections, his rivals began receiving death threats one after another (and some, like socialist Yai Dillo Jeru, died under mysterious circumstances), GSAP sounded the alarm. Economist Sukkes Masra, leader of the "Transformers" movement, which was part of the core of the GCAP, attempted to turn the tide in favor of the opposition. Masra managed to ride the wave of popular indignation and become prime minister in the younger Déby's cabinet, thereby creating a counterweight to the presidential team. However, he only lasted six months in office before being forced into retirement. Exactly one year later, Masra was arrested and sentenced to 20 years in prison on "political" charges. A few months later, the Chadian leader secured constitutional amendments, thereby breaking the opponents' last remaining leverage. FAILED STRIKE The opposition, however, did not give up and attempted to turn Masra into a sacred figure, and his arrest into an act of civil resistance in the spirit of Mahatma Gandhi and Nelson Mandela. Under his name, GCAP members organized several charity festivals and held political and public events in cities across Chad. The largest event of the “Year of Masra” was supposed to be the so-called “March of Protest and Indignation,” which the opposition planned to hold in early May and turn into a “national strike.” GCAP leaders hoped to use the mobilization effect of the protest in negotiations with the president and force him, if not to release Masra, then at least to improve his conditions of detention or reduce his sentence. However, while preparing the march, the underground activists made a fatal miscalculation: they publicly announced the date and location of the gathering. Unsurprisingly, Chadian security services came knocking on their door with warrants for their immediate arrest. In total, around a dozen senior officials were jailed in N'Djamena at one point. While most of them remain anonymous, it is known that the leader of the Chadian "Democrats," Avoksouma John, who became the face of GCAP after Masra's arrest, was among those imprisoned. The opposition camp was decapitated and effectively paralyzed. THE SILENCE OF THE FRENCH Rumors of a political cleansing in Chad quickly spread to Europe, including France, considered a key ally of the Déby regime. However, the Elysée Palace has not responded to the news of purges among the Chadian opposition, despite leading European human rights organizations asking Emmanuel Macron at least several times to reason with his African counterpart. The reason for this inaction lies in the fear of the "spectre of pro-Russian coups," which has become a lingering presence in France's African strategy. Although the Chadian GCAP's activities have focused largely on domestic policy (and relations with Russia have never been emphasized by most activists), Paris prefers to play it safe. Moreover, any potential opponent of Deby Jr. will a priori have a less pronounced orientation towards French interests than his predecessor. Moreover, the "GCAP affair" is retroactive. Should Déby suddenly want to distance himself from the Élysée Palace, his former patron will easily point to his undemocratic behavior and political repression of the opposition. He will use this as justification for political pressure and sanctions that could drag Chad back into France's sphere of influence. |
| Posted by:badanov |