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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Trump more likely to continue game of chicken with Iran than to attack
2026-05-01
[Jpost] Despite leaked reports about top US military officials briefing President Donald Trump on new escalatory and potentially imminent military options against Iran, the current game of chicken will continue for the near future, Israeli and American sources have indicated to The Jerusalem Post.

While the leaks present Trump as being briefed on potential "new" options for attacking Iran so that it will make further concessions, nuclear or otherwise, all of these plans have been on the table since early March and are not new, according to people familiar with the matter.

Despite repeated opportunities to opt for any of the multiple options, Trump has preferred avoiding the additional risks they entail, the sources indicated.

Trump opted for a unilateral ceasefire on April 7, even though he received no assurances of concessions by Iran.

The calculus was relatively simple: Trump was hemorrhaging political support once the war went past its early days of euphoria.

As the days of war became weeks, large majorities of the American public — and even an increasing number of Republicans — opposed the war due to the spike in gas prices.

They also opposed the US fighting for any extended period in the Middle East, which can be framed as a "war of choice" for Washington, although it is more pressing for Israel.

Gas prices are still far above where they were before the war. If they do not decline in the coming months, the Republican Party likely will be hammered during the US midterm elections.

If there is neither war nor chaos in the Middle East in the coming months, however, then the opposition would be less intense in the short term. The prospect of bringing gas prices down in time to impact the November elections remains intact.

Nothing has really changed since Trump decided to end the war with no concessions, and then decided to extend both his deadlines and the ceasefire on two separate occasions without any stable concessions, according to the sources.

In fact, the latest leaks could signal his desperation to secure Iranian concessions before they do anything else.

Even though the negotiations are stalled, Trump thinks the Iranians will make concessions, because the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is pushing their economy to collapse.

IRAN IS ATTEMPTING TO OUTWAIT TRUMP
And President Trump is besieging Iran, which apparently must shortly such down pumping oil altogether, for lack of storage and refinery space, which will damage the equipment. So waiting may cost the Mullahs more.
The Iranians think they can wait out Trump. Their rationale is that even if the economic harm to Iranians is worse than it is to Americans, they believe their threshold for economic pain, after decades of sanctions, is far higher than Americans’ patience with gas prices.

Trump does not want to go back to a full-scale war, and the game of chicken over Hormuz has not yet moved the Iranians, so he wants to scare them more into blinking, the sources indicated.

The problem is that Trump’s blinking before the Iranians do has spoken louder than these repeated leaks.

Rest at the link
For perspective:

Posted by:Grom the Affective

#2  comments); ?>werwer
Posted by: Chantry   2026-05-01 14:01  

#1  comments); ?>werwer
Posted by: Super Hose   2026-05-01 06:08  

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