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| Africa North |
| Zineb Riboua: My assessment on Mali situation and NATO South |
| 2026-04-27 |
Text: My assessment on Mali situation and NATO South: The moment Prigozhin died, I knew Putin’s African project was eventually going to start unraveling. It was already noticeable in Syria, Lavrov tried to institutionalize Wagner through the Foreign Ministry, absorb the mercenary networks into a more formal state structure, and double down on blaming France for every failure. But none of that solves the core problem. They also made 4 mistakes, which are predictable given Russian doctrine: 1- Primacy of total regime preservation over meaningful territorial command, sustained by systematic disinformation campaigns. 2- Refusal to grapple with the genuine ethnic and political grievances that give the insurgency its sociological fuel 3- Excision of Mali from any broader architecture of legitimacy or multilateral cooperation. It hurts on intel sharing on jihadists. 4- Chronic underestimation of the adaptive capacity and structural resilience of local insurgent networks. Implications for Europe and NATO South: More at the link |
| Posted by:badanov |