[Korrespondent] The Russian command is actively regrouping its troops and strengthening forward reserves, intelligence confirms.
Ukrainian intelligence warns that Russia is preparing a new offensive. To this end, the enemy is actively regrouping and sending reinforcements to the front line.
According to the Ukrainian military, Moscow's main goal is to establish full control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by September 2026. What are the key strike zones and what is the possible time of the offensive - further in the story.
PREPARATORY MEASURES
Russia is preparing a new ground offensive, particularly in southeastern Ukraine, Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reported in an interview with the Financial Times .
According to him, the enemy is currently actively carrying out preparatory measures:
- Manpower buildup : Russia has mobilized strategic reserves, planning to increase its contingent in Ukraine (which already numbers about 680,000) by another 20,000 troops.
- Air campaign : Intensification of missile attacks (particularly with Iskander ballistic missiles, of which about 60 are being produced per month) and drone strikes aimed at destroying critical energy infrastructure to weaken the rear before the active phase of the offensive.
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) adds another point – combat reconnaissance. Experts record numerous mechanized attacks along the entire front line, which are considered attempts to test weaknesses in the Ukrainian defense.
Ukrainian military personnel, in their conversations with journalists, also draw attention to the tactics of "small groups" : now the Russians are actively replacing large-scale mechanized breakthroughs with small assault groups on motorcycles and buggies.
Defenders believe that this also indicates preparation for an offensive, since the main goal of such tactics is the gradual exhaustion of the defense.
KEY ATTACK AREAS
On the eve, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, also reported that the Russians are regrouping and bringing up reserves to the front. He specifically drew attention to the Pokrovsky direction, where hundreds of enemy attacks have been recorded since the beginning of April.
It should be noted that the Russians' priority in the Donetsk region is to attempt to capture the agglomeration of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka-Kostyantynovka.
In addition, the enemy is also interested in the southern direction. Here, a buildup of forces is observed in the Zaporizhia region, in particular in the Hulyaipil and Orikhiv directions.
TIME PERIOD
According to military intelligence and analysts, Russian forces have already begun their planned spring-summer 2026 offensive, the activity of which has been increasing since mid-March.
Even greater enemy efforts should be expected from May, when the "green light" will increase, and there will be foggy or rainy weather, which will hinder Ukrainian drones, but will facilitate Russian infantry and mechanized assaults.
Experts point to a symbolic date for the Russian Federation – May 9, plus or minus a few days, as the likely peak of offensive activity.
WILL THE RUSSIANS HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH?
Ruslan Mikula, co-founder of the analytical project DeepState, confirms that the Russians are waiting for weather conditions to launch a major offensive. As he told the BBC, the enemy will try to act according to the following scheme: first press Kostyantynivka (currently fighting is taking place in the southern and eastern quarters of the city), then try to take or surround neighboring Druzhkivka.
The next task is to take control of Liman (General Gerasimov's claims of control over 70% of this city are denied by the Ukrainian side, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine says that there are no Russian troops in the settlement) and advance along the Seversky Donets River.
This will give them the opportunity to shell Sloviansk from the northern shore and, in the future, create "pincers" for capture.
The DeepState co-founder is confident that the Russian army is currently not in the right condition to accomplish this task.
"They set such tasks, but it does not correlate with reality," he said.
Moreover, DeepState analysts do not record large-scale troop transfers to the Donetsk region. According to Mykula, there are signs that the Russian Federation is, on the contrary, moving reserves, in particular airborne assault troops, to the Hulyaipol area (Zaporizhzhya region).
In addition, Russia is trying to force Ukraine to deploy additional forces to Sumy and Kharkiv regions, where its troops have been active in recent weeks on the border territory. It was in this area that the Russian Federation recorded its greatest advance in April.