| Another one from International Crisis Group, a George Soros think tank. |
WHAT’S NEW? 
Control of Sudan is now divided between its army, which holds Khartoum and the east, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in the west. Though diplomacy made strides in 2025, it appears stalled amid a row between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – and now the Middle East war.
Why does it matter? Sudan is home to the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Millions of Sudanese face starvation or famine. The state has largely collapsed, and Khartoum remains mostly uninhabitable. With Gulf and other regional powers backing opposing sides, the war risks further drawing in neighbours, including Ethiopia, the Horn of Africa’s behemoth.
What should be done? While they may have little bandwidth for Sudan diplomacy at present, the outside actors best positioned to press for peace cannot let it slip off the agenda. Even as war wracks the Middle East, they should step up their efforts to end Sudan’s conflict before all momentum is lost.
I. OVERVIEW
With the world’s attention fixed on the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, another conflict is raging in the Horn of Africa, not that far away. The Sudanese civil war is grinding on with no resolution in sight. For nearly three years, two branches of the military, the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have fought bitterly for supremacy. Neither seems on the verge of achieving it. Control of the country is divided between them, and the risk of long-term partition is growing, with both sides naming governments staking claims to nationwide sovereignty in 2025. The war has compelled as many as four million Sudanese to flee the country, displaced many more internally and plunged several areas into prolonged hunger or famine. Foreign powers are complicit, backing opposing sides. A U.S. effort to marshal outside actors to press the conflict parties toward peace was struggling even before the Middle East war distracted them all. But they must not neglect the Sudan file; they need to find a way to manage their own differences so they can map an endgame for the war before it expands further past Sudan’s borders.
Sudan’s civil war broke out in April 2023, following a military takeover that removed a civilian cabinet working toward a democratic transition. The army and RSF had seized power together, but they soon came to blows, kicking off a protracted battle that has seen each side’s fortunes wax and wane. The army and its affiliated government now hold the capital Khartoum; the central Nile River corridor; and the east, including strategic Port Sudan. The RSF dominates most of the western Darfur region, with supply routes from Chad and Libya. The main front lines between the sides lie at present in the west-central Kordofan region.
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