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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran | ||
| OSINT Recap of Munitions Expended in Iran Fracas To Date | ||
| 2026-04-22 | ||
Analysis of seven key munitions shows that the United States has enough missiles to continue fighting this war under any plausible scenario. The risk—which will persist for many years—lies in future wars. In the 39 days of the air and missile campaign before the ceasefire, U.S. forces heavily used the seven munitions in Table 1. For four of them, the United States may have expended more than half of the prewar inventory. Rebuilding to prewar levels for the seven munitions will take from one to four years as missiles in the pipeline are delivered. These missiles will also be critical for a potential Western Pacific conflict. Even before the Iran war, stockpiles were deemed insufficient for a peer competitor fight. That shortfall is now even more acute, and building stockpiles to levels adequate for a war with China will take additional time. Diminished inventories will also affect the U.S. supply of Patriot, Terminal High Altitude Area Defenses (THAADs), and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSMs) to Ukraine and other allies and partners that use them. The United States will compete with those countries that also want to replenish and expand inventories. MANY MUNITIONS HAVE ACCEPTABLE INVENTORIES Before delving into munitions with shortages, it is worth recognizing that many munitions have acceptable inventories. Thus, even if critical munitions run low or run out, the United States will be able to continue the fight. For ground attack munitions, available alternatives are far cheaper but with the same explosive yield. To illustrate the cost difference, a BLU-110 bomb fitted with a Joint Direct Attack Munition guidance kit costs less than $100,000 while a Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) costs $2.6 million. Both accurately deliver 1,000-pound payloads. These munitions, however, have a shorter range and, thereby, put launch platforms in more danger. Air superiority is required to use them extensively. The alternatives include, but are not limited to:
If inventories are so depleted, how can the analysis conclude that the United States has enough munitions for this war? The answer lies in the dramatic drop in usage from the early days of the war. For ground attacks, the less expensive and more plentiful munitions of Figure 1 have largely replaced the long-range munitions (TLAMs, JASSMs, and PrSMs). Air and missile defense expenditures came down because Iran’s drone and missile attacks were way down after the first few days. Whereas Iran fired more than 2,000 drones and 500 ballistic missiles in the first four days, launches were down, respectively, by 83 and 90 percent after a week. The diminished munitions stockpiles have created a near-term risk. A war against a capable peer competitor like China will consume munitions at greater rates than in this war. Prewar inventories were already insufficient; the levels today will constrain U.S. operations should a future conflict arise. President Trump has accepted this munitions risk—alongside other tradeoffs like the diversion of forces from the Western Pacific. The theory here appears to be that it is important to decisively win the current war you are in, rather than to hold back and preserve capability for a future war that may never happen. Once Operation Epic Fury ends, the naval assets sent to the Middle East will return to the Pacific. Munitions inventories will start to recover, but restoring depleted stockpiles and then achieving the desired inventory levels will take many years. | ||
| Posted by:Clem+Elmish4239 |
| #2 |
| Posted by: ed in texas 2026-04-22 08:42 |
| #1 |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2026-04-22 07:14 |