by Shamil Kerashev
[REGNUM] Israeli strikes on Lebanon have brought the small country once called the "Switzerland of the Middle East" closer to a humanitarian catastrophe. Neither a ceasefire nor even a sustainable peace, should it be achieved, guarantees improvement.
The country was already rapidly approaching bankruptcy, thanks to Hezbollah interference. It now just is missing Hezbollah’s billion dollars in gold, thanks to the IDF, no to mention all the rubble south of the Litani River.The United Nations estimates that approximately one million people have been forced to flee southern Lebanon since the end of February. Nearly half of them are children.
| Given all the rockets and munitions Hezbollah had been storing under beds and in attics and basements of private homes throughout the region, the refugees are probably safer now, if not any more snug and warm. But that’s a choice, you know? Some people prefer the risk of being blown to smithereens, whether or not the IDF is the precipitator of the exothermic reaction. |
| Meh. Not feeling safe has been their base state since Hezbollah started storing their stuff in private homes, schools, and mosques throughout the region. |
| This is, of course, resented north of the Litani, where the local population is mostly not Shiite, and so did not benefit from Hezbollah payments to store the stuff for them. And now, of course, the Shiites expect to get to use their space for free, or even be given charity on top of it because they’re suffering. |
| This could be over in moments if Hezbollah would just surrender. But they refuse, so it won’t be. |
Is there a chance to prevent their spread? Lebanese doctors say they are doing everything possible. However, resources—even basic antiseptics, hygiene products, and clean drinking water—are seriously limited.
"We have just under two months' worth of supplies. This includes both medications and pharmaceuticals. If the war continues, major problems are inevitable," Bilal Abdallah, head of the parliamentary health committee, warned back in March.
One of those two months has already passed, and the grim forecast has begun to come true. According to the WHO, Lebanese medical personnel lack even first aid kits to treat the wounded, not to mention insulin for diabetics and chemotherapy drugs for those diagnosed with cancer.
It's important to keep in mind that a significant portion of Lebanon's medicines and medical supplies traditionally came from abroad. However, most of the supply chains that passed through both the Persian Gulf and Lebanon itself have been disrupted.
In this regard, intensive Israeli strikes on bridges over the Litani River, which separates southern Lebanon from its central region, played a critical role. As a reminder, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz had previously ordered the destruction of all crossings without exception, as they were "used for terrorist activity" and supplying Hezbollah.
| Remember when Hezbollah signed the ceasefire? They aren’t permitted south of the Litani River, especially to bring supplies. The IDF does not want them to be foresworn, losing their honour. |
| Israel’s engineers aren’t mining and blowing up but demining and blowing up the mines Hezbollah placed. The order of operations matters. |
These words were spoken even before the ceasefire came into effect. But, as is now clear, the ceasefire did not give Israeli fighters a reason to retreat from their positions.
What's next? The Prime Minister of the Jewish state advises against getting ahead of ourselves. However, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the Religious Zionism party, was very specific : "There will be a political step in Gaza. And there will be a decisive political step in Lebanon, which will expand our borders to the Litani River."
| Hezbollah was aiming out the windows of houses in Lebanon, and shooting people through the windows of Israeli houses on the opposite side of the border. That kind of thing can’t be allowed to continue. The only way to prevent it is to drive the shooters out of range. |
Tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of refugees simply have nowhere to return to. Consequently, the remaining regions of the country are inevitably threatened by overcrowding due to depleted housing stock, dilapidated infrastructure, and a lack of jobs.
| The Finding Out stage of the proceedings. Next time don’t FA. |
| The new Sunni rulers of Syria don’t want more Shiites. |
Even in peacetime, Lebanese people constantly complained about the depreciation of the national currency, the freezing of bank deposits, and alarming rates of inflation.
What can we say about the last few months, when strikes were systematically launched against key economic hubs—from the trade route crossroads of the market town of Nabatieh to the suburbs of Beirut itself—and the supply of goods was effectively paralyzed.
At the same time, the Lebanese government has already been made clear that the declared "silence" does not yet mean stabilization. "The goal we have defined—disarming Hezbollah by military or political means—has been and remains the goal of the campaign to which we are committed," says Israel Katz.
In other words, as long as armed resistance exists in Lebanon, Tel Aviv retains the right to conduct military operations of any intensity. And Hezbollah—even if it has formally agreed to hold off—has no intention of disarming, much less self-destructing. Moreover, it relies politically on Lebanon's rapidly growing Shiite community.
The latter regularly takes to the streets in support of the movement and will likely continue to do so, considering it the only trustworthy guarantor of sovereignty.
Recently, protesters gathered outside the Lebanese parliament building, putting forward a fundamental demand to the authorities: no concessions to Israel. They also threatened Prime Minister Nawaf Salam with serious consequences if he even cautiously admitted that Hezbollah structures could one day be dismantled.
And internal contradictions only worsen the situation, from which Lebanon will certainly not emerge without painful losses.
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