Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin
[ColonelCassad] A map of the Strait of Hormuz passage regime agreed upon with Iran along an established corridor. Iran plans to charge a fee (in yuan or cryptocurrency) for each barrel of oil transported through this route. The money will be used to rebuild Iran.
According to various estimates, Iran could earn between $60 and $90 billion per year from this scheme.
| Or nothing but more death and destruction, which is how the smart money is betting. |
1. Negotiations to end the war haven't even begun yet and could easily be disrupted.
2. Oman refused to participate in the deal, although Iran effectively offered the Sultan a kickback from the sums received for tanker transit.
3. Trump wants a share of this sum, openly offering to share the strait toll with Iran in an unknown proportion (knowing Trump, I wouldn't be surprised if he wants half of the $60-$90 billion in tolls).
4. What will be the status of passage for vessels from friendly countries—Russia, China, Pakistan, etc.—be? Most likely free, but this hasn't been officially confirmed yet.
5. Gulf states are already complaining loudly about not wanting to pay Iran the de facto tribute it would collect from their oil traffic. Bahrain and Qatar, which cannot do without the Strait of Hormuz, are especially complaining.
So Iran's plans are certainly ambitious. If they are implemented, it will recoup the costs of the war and reconstruction in two to three years. But there are plenty of people who want to prevent Iran from doing so.
More from Boris Rozhin:
The US violated the agreement with Iran even before the start of negotiations.
On the value of negotiations with the US.
The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament said that the US violated three out of the 10 framework conditions for the talks even before they began. The 10-point proposal of the Islamic Republic of Iran is the "working basis for the negotiations" and the main document for discussions. However, three points of this proposal have been violated so far:
1. Failure to comply with the first point of the 10-point proposal regarding a ceasefire in Lebanon, a commitment that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also directly referred to and announced as "an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and other regions, with immediate effect";
2. Penetration of a drone into Iranian airspace, which was shot down over the city of Lar in Fars province, which is a clear violation of the clause prohibiting any further violations of Iranian airspace;
3. The denial of Iran's right to enrichment,
| …there is no right to enrich, which in fact is what the current war is proving… |