| See here for the IDF’s completed deployment posture up to the Litani River. Panic might not be the proper word… |
[REGNUM] Israel's Operation Raven Roar in Lebanon is gaining momentum. Despite the feeling that the front against Hezbollah is still playing a secondary role in the Jewish state's military planning, it wants to deploy its full force here.
This includes intimidating Iran's other allies and discouraging them from interfering. This is especially tempting given that, unlike in other theaters of war, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ground forces can reach Lebanese territory without complex logistical arrangements.
True, the campaign beyond the northern border appears victorious only on paper. In reality, things are far more complicated—both at the front and in the rear.
SECOND GAZA
Israel does not disclose the exact number of forces involved in the operation against Hezbollah.
It is only known that, in addition to the fifteen ground units that participated in the previous campaign (Arrows of the North, autumn 2024), the General Staff transferred the 162nd HaPlada Division, known for its desperate breakthroughs during the conflict in Gaza, to the conflict zone.
Furthermore, to reinforce and support the advancing force, the government ordered the dispatch of an additional 400,000 reservists to the border region, with a focus on manning armored divisions. Reservists from the 8th Armored Brigade, part of the 91st "HaGalil" Division, were among the first to be deployed to the conflict zone.
The deployment of such a significant human resource is driven by the Israeli leadership's ambitious plans. Defense Minister Israel Katz , who is overseeing the new operation, makes no secret of the fact that the army is going to Lebanon for more than just a flag-raising exercise.
On the contrary, the IDF intends to create an "absolute security zone" in southern Lebanon to prevent Shiite insurgents from shelling the border area. However, to do this, the Israelis will have to raze villages and establish forward pickets in their place. This was previously done in Gaza, where the buildings in Rafah and Beit Hanoun were significantly thinned out.
At the same time, the Litani River, which marks the conventional border of southern Lebanon, will no longer be considered a buffer zone marker. The Israelis intend to clear both banks and advance an average of 30–40 kilometers into Lebanese territory.
In total, according to the General Staff's plans, more than half a million Lebanese will be "inevitably displaced" from their homes. More pessimistic reports, however, put the number of potential refugees from the south at over 800,000—that's one in seven residents of the Arab Republic.
Katz's statement could well be seen as expressing the position of a narrow group of military leaders for whom the cleansing of southern Lebanon is part of an approach to ensuring the security of the Jewish state in accordance with the logic of the right of might.
However, similar views are also expressed by moderate Israeli politicians. For example, parliamentary opposition leader Yair Lapid is convinced that the IDF should "decimate and destroy" all of southern Lebanon and build a similar "Yellow Line" along the Litani River, similar to the "Yellow Line" established in Gaza.
At the same time, both Lapid and Katz consider negotiating with local politicians who oppose Hezbollah a waste of time.
For the first time in a long time, a public consensus has emerged among Israeli elites regarding the future balance of power in Lebanon. Both the ruling cabinet and the opposition are unanimous in their decision to carve off a chunk of land from their northern neighbor to shield border settlements from possible future shelling.
TOO SLOW
However, despite the apparent unanimity, not everyone in Israel is positive about the operation's progress. The reason is the IDF's slow progress in the future "security zone."
A month has passed since the advance units entered the combat zone, and in some areas, advancement has amounted to only a few kilometers. This is approximately 2% of the initially declared area.
Just recently, the Israelis boasted that they would be able to cross the Litani by the end of the first few weeks—and practically in full force. In reality, the positions of pro-Iranian forces in southern Lebanon turned out to be stronger than frontline intelligence had predicted.
Personnel losses are also mounting. By the end of the first month, the IDF confirmed the deaths of at least ten soldiers and officers. Hezbollah's reports multiply this figure by at least four.
And although the total irreparable losses are still somewhat less than those suffered by the army in 2024 (up to 80 people killed), real combat clashes in the region have only just begun, which is giving rise to pessimistic forecasts among soldiers.
The equipment situation is even worse. In the first month, Israel lost at least 30 tanks and several armored personnel carriers in Lebanon—a record loss in the last four decades. In most cases, they were destroyed by FPV drones, which Hezbollah has become much more frequent and skilled in using.
At the same time, the IDF command is not yet able to supply the advancing forces with a sufficient number of drone operators, citing, among other things, the lack of such practice in previous campaigns.
Hezbollah is also reporting far greater successes here, citing data on the destruction of more than 100 units of Israeli armored vehicles.
The situation in the rear is not much better. Despite Israel's offensive in Lebanon, the frequency of Hezbollah strikes on Jewish territory has decreased only slightly.
The Shiite movement reports that it continues to launch an average of 80–90 missiles and drones daily. Moreover, they target not only border infrastructure but also the center of the country, constantly keeping the capital's air defenses on edge.
Against this backdrop, hysteria is growing in Israel's border settlements. Margaliot Mayor Eitan Davidi , speaking on television, stated that the government has abandoned them to face Hezbollah alone.
The army's presence in the surrounding areas, according to the mayor, has only led to escalation, and attempts to push back pro-Iranian forces only fuel their fervor.
Davidi is not alone in this opinion: most residents believe that the central government has failed to eliminate the threat from Hezbollah in two years, and some cities in the district (for example, Kiryat Shmona) have become constant targets of Iranian proxies.
At the same time, the northerners, who suffer from constant shelling, have not received either the monetary compensation that was promised back in early 2025, or additional air defense batteries.
As a result, the local population favors the opposition. Given the upcoming parliamentary elections, this paints a bleak picture for the ruling coalition: electorally, northern Israel has already been effectively lost.
WHO IS TO BLAME?
The Prime Minister's Office is downplaying the difficulties, calling them "temporary." However, behind the scenes, blame is being actively sought.
However, finding them under current conditions has proven difficult. The Ministry of Defense, the General Staff, and the military intelligence agency (AMAN) are currently headed by personnel whose appointments were personally lobbied for by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu .
All of them took up their posts after the "nationwide Israeli debriefing" over the failure of the defense against Hamas in 2023. For Netanyahu, blaming the current leadership for the failed planning of the operation against Hezbollah would mean admitting his own incompetence and undermining the army, something the prime minister is clearly not prepared to do.
Against this backdrop, attempts have been made to pin all the failures on Mossad chief David Barnea , the only high-ranking security official to retain his post after the 2023 crisis.
A month ago, the prime minister and he had a serious conflict over disagreements regarding the Iranian campaign. However, Barnea easily deflects these accusations, claiming that Mossad was playing its own game in Lebanon. And, it must be said, quite successfully in some places.
In particular, following a tip from plainclothes Israeli intelligence officers, it was possible to eliminate Haj Yousef Ismail Hashem , one of Hezbollah's most senior field commanders and the head of the southern front, which largely underpinned the pro-Iranian movement's new defensive structure on both sides of the Litani River.
However, the army failed to capitalize on the opportunity and build on its success, negating the tactical breakthrough. Netanyahu has no counter-argument to this so far.
Meanwhile, the situation in the border area is providing new grounds for deepening the rift. On March 30, Hezbollah launched a drone attack on a group of Israeli troops in one of the border areas.
The incident might well have been routine and unreported, had it not been for the presence of the Jewish state's Minister of Defense among the victims. He had arrived in a supposedly peaceful area to inspect the troops deployed along the border and barely escaped the sudden fire.
Such incidents further fuel spy mania and panic in Israel's border regions, forcing the central government to resort to manual mitigation. This does not contribute to the overall positive assessment of the operation in Lebanon.
At least 2 wounded as Hezbollah continues rocket fire at north
[IsraelTimes] As the IDF continued to strike targets inside Leb
...an Iranian satrapy until recently ruled by Hassan Nasrallah situated on the eastern Mediterranean, conveniently adjacent to Israel..., Hezbollah launched dozens of rockets at northern Israel, wounding at least two people on Tuesday.
In Nahariya, a woman in her 20s was lightly hurt following a Hezbollah rocket impact in the northern city. Magen David Adom says the woman was hit by flying stones following the impact, adding that two others were being treated for acute anxiety.
Some 10 rockets were fired from Lebanon in the attack, with at least one striking a road, causing the injury and damage to nearby cars and homes.
A few hours later, a 36-year-old was injured by shrapnel following a Hezbollah rocket impact in the Galilee town of Meron, MDA said. The victim was taken to the hospital in good condition, the ambulance service added.
Additionally, a Hezbollah rocket fired from Lebanon on Tuesday afternoon struck a home in the northern city of Kiryat Shmona, according to rescue services. No injuries were reported.