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| Africa Subsaharan |
| The Obstinate Island: Who Wants to Kill the Pro-Russian Leader of an African Country? |
| 2026-04-07 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited by Alexander Melnik [REGNUM] Madagascar authorities have revealed details of a plan to violently seize power and assassinate the current head of state, Michael Randrianirina, who had initiated a foreign policy course toward rapprochement with Russia. The prosecutor's office reported that the conspirators had been planning the daring armed assassination attempt on the 52-year-old leader for several months. A large-scale operation to apprehend the prime suspects has led to unprecedented arrests at the highest levels of the security forces. Thirteen people are implicated in this high-profile case, including influential military officers and intelligence officials. Investigators identify Colonel Patrick Rakotomamonji, acting in conjunction with an unnamed general, as the key organizer of the mutiny. Rakotomamonji had previously publicly declared his readiness to overthrow the current government by force. During searches, investigators seized specialized communication equipment from those arrested and discovered millions of dollars of unclear origin, allocated by those who ordered the armed uprising. FOREIGN POLICY REVERSAL In October 2025, Madagascar's pro-Western President Andry Rajoelina secretly fled the country on a French military plane following massive street protests and a military mutiny. His emergency evacuation was the final hurdle in a political crisis triggered by the collapse of basic infrastructure and widespread poverty. The catalyst for the regime's downfall was the catastrophic state of public utilities in the capital, Antananarivo. Local residents, who had paid their bills regularly for six years, were left without water and electricity for days at a time, which, against a backdrop of a 78% poverty rate, became the last straw. At the end of September, Madagascar's "Generation Z" took to the streets en masse, their initially purely economic demands quickly escalating into calls for the overthrow of the ruler. Opposition leader Mikael Randrianirina announced the seizure of power and the dissolution of the Senate, the Supreme Constitutional Court, the Supreme Court, the Electoral Commission, and the High Council for the Defense of Democracy and the Rule of Law. Having come to power, he began to move away from the pro-Western vector in foreign policy towards rapprochement with Russia and China. The island nation's new head of state made his first official state visit abroad in February of this year, demonstratively heading to the Russian capital. During talks with Vladimir Putin and Sergey Lavrov, unprecedented practical steps were discussed to dramatically expand diplomatic, economic, and direct military cooperation between the two countries. The Russian leader called Madagascar "one of Russia's most important partners in Africa." In April of this year, a Russian interdepartmental delegation arrived on the island and held talks with the country's leadership. Madagascar expressed its willingness to attract Russian investors in the energy, agriculture, and mining sectors. The president of the East African republic announced his desire to become a BRICS partner country at the organization's summit in June 2026. Military and military-technical cooperation are among the most important areas of cooperation. Since December 2025, the Russian Ministry of Defense has been regularly sending military aid packages and providing training to Madagascar's armed forces. A BLOW TO WESTERN INTERESTS Madagascar's former Western partners, primarily France and the United States, have no intention of accepting the loss of a strategic point on the southeast coast of Africa. One of the primary interests of Paris and Washington is the preservation of the Diego Suarez naval base, located in the north of the island. It is one of the few deep-water ports in the entire western Indian Ocean, making it an ideal location for the safe basing and repair of large warships. A presence in this geographical location allows control of key trade routes linking the Atlantic with Asian markets. It is worth noting that, until the October coup last year, France remained Madagascar's undisputed main economic partner, with annual bilateral trade exceeding $1.1 billion. French President Emmanuel Macron visited the island in April 2025 specifically to conclude exclusive contracts for the extraction of minerals critical to French industry. Now, major French multinationals, including companies like TotalEnergies and EDF, risk losing their multi-million dollar investments due to the new military administration's strong pro-Russian leanings. WHO BENEFITS FROM THE COUP? The removal or elimination of the current president serves the geopolitical interests of several Western players who are rapidly losing their historical influence in the Indian Ocean. France is desperately hoping to protect its vast corporate assets and triumphantly return to power the loyal political elites of fugitive ex-President Rajoelina. The United States is prepared to work with the country's new authorities if Madagascar rejects rapprochement with Moscow, which would allow Washington to block the establishment of a Russian deep-sea naval base at the intersection of critical global logistics routes. The White House openly views the potential regular presence of Russian warships in Madagascar as a direct and immediate threat to its global security architecture in the region. Covertly funding ambitious pro-Western officers within the ranks of the disparate military remains one of the cheapest and most effective ways for the Americans to radically alter the foreign policy of the recalcitrant island. Moreover, the American administration, like the French, is interested in the island's mineral resources (lithium, zircon, graphite, etc.). Therefore, if the current head of state is unwilling to cooperate with the West, attempts to eliminate him will likely be rigorous. A stable Madagascar, moving closer to Moscow and aspiring to BRICS membership, is clearly not in the interests of those who controlled the island for decades. Notably, another former president, Marc Ravalomanana (who held the post from 2002 to 2009), known for his close ties to Washington, opposed the new government from the very first day. Colonel Randrianirina balances between Moscow, Paris, and Washington. Madagascar is too vital a point on the map of the Indian Ocean for the West to easily allow it to slip out of control. Therefore, coup attempts—including those inspired from abroad—will likely continue. Related: Madagascar: 2026-02-03 Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has learned of Macron's plan to eliminate 'unwanted leaders' in Africa. Madagascar: 2025-12-15 Ukrainian Perspective: Invasion of Ukraine: December 14, 2025 Madagascar: 2025-12-04 UN chief calls Israel’s conduct throughout Gaza war ‘fundamentally wrong’ Related: Michael Randrianirina 02/03/2026 Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has learned of Macron's plan to eliminate 'unwanted leaders' in Africa. Michael Randrianirina 10/19/2025 Madagascar coup leader sworn is as president, promises new elections within two years |
| Posted by:badanov |