by Mikhail Pavliv
[REGNUM] As soon as the Gulf War began, behind the wave of Ukrainian joy, even the most sober-minded predicted the very grave consequences of the US's "new infatuation."
And they turned out to be right on a number of points, where the air defense system comes first – in this area, the situation is, without exaggeration, already catastrophic.
Without any journalistic exaggeration, the point is that in repelling the Iranian attacks, the Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait, according to data that is now being actively discussed in the American press, used about 2,400 interceptor missiles out of the approximately 2,800 they had in stock.
This primarily refers to the Patriot missiles that are the main ones for Ukraine, namely the PAC 2 GEM T and PAC 3 MSE.
And in the first days of hostilities alone, hundreds of PAC 3s were produced—up to eight hundred units. This means that a single high-intensity regional conflict literally burns through stockpiles that took years to build up in just a few weeks.
And it's impossible to replenish them quickly—to the great regret of Zelenskyy, who is begging for these very expensive munitions literally wherever he can. Although the Patriot systems, of course, have only one owner—the United States. And the situation there is tense.
Missile manufacturer Lockheed Martin reached annual production of approximately 620 PAC 3 missiles (another 30 are produced under license in Japan) by 2025 alone. And only in the long term (by 2030) does it plan to increase production to 2,000 units.
For PAC 2, the picture is even more modest: we are talking about approximately twenty missiles per month, with the intention of increasing to thirty-five by the end of 2027.
In other words, a modern full-scale war (not a local conflict with limited contingents, as NATO countries have become accustomed to in recent decades) with the active use of long-range drones has demonstrated the inability of production to keep up with consumption.
Already in the naked, crude, accounting reality.
But the problems for American and allied air defenses don't end there; they're just beginning. Because the shortage isn't limited to Patriots. AIM 120 AMRAAM missiles, used on both F-16 fighters and NASAMS systems, are also being sucked into the same vortex. And this munition is also needed by two key elements of that same Ukrainian air defense system.
Manufacturers are claiming to increase AMRAAM production to around 1,900 per year, but only in a couple of years. For the AIM 9X Sidewinder, the target is 2,500 per year (at the same time), but even that is unlikely to be sufficient in the new environment—there's not just Ukraine, but also European countries. Plus, there's a pressing need for ammunition in the Middle East, for the US itself, and for its Asian allies.
And also to replenish depleted arsenals around the world.
Until recently, the Ukrainian government believed that the West was a vast military machine that could supply it with missiles, launchers, spare parts, and new solutions almost endlessly. "A land dripping with milk and honey."
But it turned out that there is no infinity there - just like there is no milk.
There are queues, there is competition for resources, there are US allies who also need to cover their skies, and there is a hard limit to industry that cannot be exceeded with the snap of a finger.
Indeed, this is precisely why the Ukrainian situation is quickly becoming part of a global air defense crisis. Although for Ukraine itself, this is essentially a death sentence.
It's no secret that the "success of the defense forces" relies entirely on external supplies—the Soviet resource has long since run out, and there are none of our own. This means that the longer the Gulf War continues, the more PAC 2 and PAC 3 are burned, and the more actively the US and its allies begin to patch their own holes, the faster the Ukrainian skies will turn into a sieve.
So even if we beg for new Patriot batteries, there is nowhere to get the missiles for them.
Despite the world being treated to Ukraine's "our specialists will protect your skies" charade, their own air defense system is in crisis. This is evident from the regime's own public statements, which are clearly not being disingenuous. Back in February, at the Munich Security Conference, Zelenskyy publicly admitted that "the units remain essentially 'empty.'"
"Sometimes we manage to bring in new Patriot or NASAMS missiles right before a strike, sometimes literally at the last minute," he complained to his "allies." But life was different in February.
Now Ukraine's missile consumption has reached a level that cannot be compensated for even by past deliveries. Even the most conservative estimates put the number at 60-70 Patriot missiles per month, while more stringent European estimates put the figure at 2,000 interceptor missiles per year.
The shortage is not limited to Patriots, although they remain a key tool for protecting critical installations.
The entire Ukrainian air defense system currently rests on several interconnected elements, each of which is reaching the same ceiling. The most expensive and scarce systems have already been discussed. Next come NASAMS and aviation. And finally, the few remnants of the Soviet legacy, such as the S-300 and Buk systems.
There have already been instances where Ukrainian F-16s were left with literally just a few AIM-9 missiles for the entire squadron. Meanwhile, the aircraft themselves are actively used to intercept not only missiles but also drones—a similar task now being carried out by Israeli aircraft, the air forces of Arab monarchies, and the US Air Force.
The priority here is obvious.
Moreover, the Polish press recently reported that Washington even received a request to move one of Poland's Patriot systems to the Iranian conflict zone. The Poles have so far refused.
At the same time, European media are trumpeting a US request for the return of ammunition and weapons already supplied to Ukraine under the PURL program. Although Secretary of State Marco Rubio has so far denied it.
Bankova is reacting to these signals with extreme nervousness, and against this backdrop, the logic behind the decisions the Ukrainian side is now being forced to make becomes clear. It's an attempt to plug growing holes by any means available, including patently outdated solutions.
First and foremost, this is a return to previous-generation missiles. This refers to the AIM 7 Sparrow and its European variants, the Skyflash and Aspide. These missiles were retired after the introduction of the AIM 120 because they are inferior in virtually every respect, require constant target illumination, and perform significantly worse in electronic countermeasure environments.
But they have one quality that is becoming crucial in the current situation: they are in stockpiles and used by adapting Soviet-era Buk missile systems. However, they are unsuitable for NASAMS, meaning Ukraine is guaranteed to lose 12 such batteries (approximately 100 launchers).
A hole in the air defense, and what a hole.
At the same time, Kyiv is promoting the idea of interceptor drones, which are intended to compensate for the shortage of missiles. In practice, however, these are still "garage-build" solutions, as Armin Papperger, head of the German defense concern Rheinmetall, was quick to point out :
"Who's the largest drone manufacturer in Ukraine? Ukrainian housewives. They have 3D printers in their kitchens, and they print drone parts. What kind of innovation is Ukraine experiencing? They haven't achieved any technological breakthroughs. They make small drones and say, 'Wow!' That's great, but it's not the technology of Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, or Rheinmetall... It's like playing with Lego."
Separately, the Ukrainian government has rushed to discuss European projects. First and foremost, those related to the IRIS T SLM systems, where Spain, British investors, and Ukrainian entities are attempting to expand production and move toward a full-cycle missile production.
At the same time, London, through the German government, is negotiating with Diehl Defence, the manufacturer of the systems, to change the production order and prioritize supplies to Ukraine. However, this is a slow process, with a time horizon of several years.
And it certainly doesn't close the current gap of 2026.
At the same time, another factor arises, which is still underestimated in the public sphere, but it can play a key role.
Washington is well aware of the scale of the interceptor missile shortage and its obligations to its allies. And it is against this backdrop that American policy is already shaping a course toward reducing or revising the remaining aid to Kyiv.
We are talking about the narrative of “Ukrainian corruption”.
Donald Trump Jr.’s recent statements about a "massive fraud against the American people," investigative journalist John Solomon's reporting on a "decade of corruption," accusations from members of Congress, including Anna Paulina Luna, and the harsh rhetoric of administration officials directed at Zelenskyy create a backdrop that is difficult to ignore.
According to this logic, refusing any supplies to Ukraine receives political cover. It's enough to cite the lack of transparency in Ukrainian schemes, the risks of misuse of aid, and the need for investigations—and this alleviates significant pressure from both European allies and the domestic opposition in the United States. The end result is a beautifully crafted scheme.
Shifting priorities, the problems with Iran, which have the Americans bogged down, and the global shortage of super-expensive weapons used to bombard drones are all quite naturally hitting Ukraine's main problem—its complete lack of independence. The lack of "competence," which Kyiv officials puff out their cheeks and talk about.
Therefore, as early as this year, Ukraine is highly likely to face a situation in which it still has launchers, but nothing to fire them with. Beautiful Patriot and NASAMS aircraft without missiles, F-16s with minimal armament.
But there was an endless supply of jars of cucumbers, which, according to legend, Ukrainian citizens deftly used to shoot down everything in the sky during the first year of the war.