by Kamran Gasanov
[REGNUM] Although US President Donald Trump has declared a moratorium on attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure and hinted at negotiations, the likelihood of escalation in the Middle East has not diminished.
Quite the contrary, if diplomatic attempts fail, the conversation could turn to a US ground operation on Kharg Island or even on the mainland of the Islamic Republic.
Against this backdrop, wariness is growing in Turkey. Although Ankara has been the victim of three missile strikes—the targeting and source of which remain unclear
| … no it doesn’t but do go on… |
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has two motives for ending the war.
First, strikes on Iran benefit Israel. Türkiye would not want Israel to become a superstate, with which it has disagreements over Gaza, Syria, and the Kurds.
| Ha ha ha — too late. And Turkey’s enmity had a good deal to make it happen, so congratulations on that. |
"You may not realize it, but we are Israel's neighbors. I say this very clearly. We are on the border. I swear by Allah, if he tries to inflict the same injustice on us as he did on Muslims—I say this as a son of this country—Israel is five hours from Hatay. We may lose 300,000 to 400,000 martyrs, but with the permission of Allah, Israel as a country will no longer exist. "he said at an event of the ruling AKP party.
| You can try. Oddly enough, you haven’t yet, even though the most competent Turkish military men were purged about a decade ago. |
| Turkey is sheltering Hamas leadership on site, and has sponsored years of Gaza flotillas in their semi-covert war against that uppity Jewish state. Israel believes you, and eventually will take action, but you have to wait your turn. |
Soylu also warned that Turkey is being forced into a "ring of fire." Syria, despite the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, has not become stable. Next door, Israel is waging war against Lebanon. In the north, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is raging. To the east, all is not well in Iraq. And in the west, Turkey is confronting Greece and Cyprus.
| Yes, yes — Turkey is the center of the universe, which is all colluding against it. Geez — paranoid much? |
| I’m so old I remember when Turkey was not ruled by crazy people. |
| And is that working for you? Because it sure doesn’t look like it’s working for you. |
The leaders of the Gulf Arab states, according to the Turkish Foreign Ministry, are "losing patience." And there are objective reasons for this. Iran is striking major refineries, oil storage facilities, and facilities in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as well as the largest liquefied natural gas complex in Qatar.
Against this backdrop, media reports are emerging that the Saudis have given the Americans permission to use the King Fahd Air Base in Taif in the west of the kingdom.
And the UAE Ambassador to the US, Yousef Al-Otaiba, in his column for the WSJ, demanded that Iran “completely dismantle its missile and nuclear capabilities” and announced its readiness to “lead international efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz.”
Relations between Arabs and Persians are tense, and US actions are introducing new dangerous variables.
Every action by one of them deemed hostile could raise the stakes for the other. Iran's state broadcaster, IRIB, is already threatening to seize the UAE and Bahrain if the US decides to launch a ground operation.
| Oh my goodness — that’s so funny! And really, really pathetic, poor dears. |
This means that missiles could target not only American bases, but also the offices of the Central Bank of Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the Qatar Wealth Authority (QIA), and so on.
For Turkey, the outbreak of a direct war between Iran and the GCC countries is no less dangerous than millions of new refugees. A couple of years ago, Erdogan restored relations with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which had suffered due to the events in Libya. Ankara saw the Gulf monarchies as a "wallet" for rebuilding its crisis-stricken economy.
| Possibly the rich Gulf countries should emulate President Trump and severely restrict who they throw their money at, because Turkey looks like bad investment. |
| That’d be the one where Pakistan took Saudi money for decades, but now refuses to keep its promises. Perhaps it’s just as well Turkey didn’t get that far. |
| Both Moslem Brotherhooders together… |
| Y’all aren’t actually neo-Ottomans, you know, reestablishing the old sultanate. Reality doesn’t work that way. |
Turkish journalists and experts note that the traditional security system based on American bases and guarantees is unreliable. The US military failed to protect Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain from attacks and, as Murat Aslan of the SETA think tank, which is close to Fidan, writes, effectively withdrew from the Iranian strikes.
| Withdrew some people, replaced them with lots of missiles hitting Iranian targets. |
| What colour is the sky in your world? |
| Those military purges definitely removed everyone capable of logical analysis. |
However, according to her, the GCC countries intend to create a military structure aimed against Iran. Ankara "disapproves" of such intentions and instead proposes creating a structure without targeting Iran or "entering into conflict" with it.
The formation of new alliances and security structures is still a long way off. Arab countries have been unable to create an "Arab NATO" for at least ten years. Moreover, they have enough of their own conflicts without Iran. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are competing for different interests in Yemen, the Emiratis have united with Israel in Somalia against Turkey, and Qatar still feels the sting of the blockade.
Therefore, Turkey is trying to solve a more pressing problem here and now: preventing the Arabs from going to war against Iran. To this end, according to Al Monitor, Ankara is attempting to act as a key mediator in potential US-Iranian negotiations.
And secondly, at the meeting with the Arab League countries in Riyadh, Türkiye, together with Pakistan, tried to ensure that the final statement did not appear as harsh as the Saudis insisted.
However, Iran's actions could force Turkey to change its position. Ultimately, after missiles began flying over Fidan and his colleagues during their meeting in Saudi Arabia, he was forced to add a condemnation of Iran to the declaration, although the Turkish minister, like the Pakistani one, had not initially intended to do so.
If Turkey and the Arab countries manage to avoid being drawn into a war with Iran, Ankara's proposals for a new security system under its leadership could gain weight. If Turkish rather than American fighter jets had been stationed at Al Udeid, Iran would hardly have launched an attack there.
Demand for a new defense system without the US is growing in the region. It's no wonder that after Israel's strike on Qatar, Saudi Arabia urgently signed an alliance pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan.