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Economy

California's Oil and Gas Crisis: Expert Warns of Full Scope of the Potential Danger

2026-03-29

Includes interesting letter from Chevron CEO Andy Walz
"An evil man will burn his own nation to the ground to rule over the ashes." ~ Sun Tzu

[California Globe] Is California on the precipice of social and economic collapse?

Nearly two weeks ago President Donald Trump announced he was invoking the Defense Production Act, and ordered the override of California laws blocking the restart of offshore oil production and the Santa Ynez Pipeline System to restart an oil pipeline project off the Santa Barbara coast, in the name of the "National Defense Resources Preparedness."

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright directed Sable Offshore Corp. to restore operations of the Santa Ynez Unit and Santa Ynez Pipeline System to address supply disruption risks caused by California policies that have left the region and U.S. military forces dependent on foreign oil.

With President Trump’s invocation of the Defense Production Act, overriding California laws, and restarting the Sable Offshore Corp. oil pipeline project, many are hoping that the federal intervention we’ve been asking for is here.

While California’s governor and Democrat-dominated Legislature have ignored the oil and gas crisis they have inflicted on California, oil experts have been warning that California’s faux "climate crisis" was leading to gas and oil shortages, dramatically increasing gas prices and energy costs, and a national security crisis.

We’ve been talking to the experts and warning for years, that California’s push to ban gas powered automobiles in favor of electric vehicles and an all-electric energy grid was not only preposterous, it would lead to potential economic collapse.

Chevron CEO Andy Walz was also warning of the impending crisis, as recently as September.

As petroleum expert Mike Ariza told the Globe this week, that was prior to the closure of Phillips 66 and Valero in Benicia. When the Phillips 66 plant closed both myself and my team were concerned that we were at or near our infrastructure limit to off load fuel tankers.

Then on January 31st, when Valero Benicia shut down, and not in April 2026 as media keeps claiming, prices started to climb. In Northern California gasoline and diesel had increased by over 80 cents per gallon in Hamilton City and Chico — Before the war with Iran started. "It was a definite indicator that we had in fact reached that infrastructure limit."

If you look at the letters that were dispatched by PBF, Chevron, and Marathon to CARB and the governor you can see a clear pattern. First, In the PBF letter they cite the closure of Valero in Benicia.

In early March, the Globe reported on Chevron’s letter to California Governor Gavin Newsom and the California Air Resources Board warning them of deep concerns and strong opposition to the CARB-proposed amendments to the Cap-and-Invest (formerly cap and trade) regulation, that the state’s few remaining refineries can’t survive, and the California economy could be crippled.

In the letter, Chevron President Andy Walz cautions that the price of gasoline will increase by more than a dollar a gallon by 2030 as a result of this regulatory change, as well as 536,770 petroleum industry jobs could be lost in the state if CARB’s proposal is authorized.

That is because "The proposed regulation will cripple the survivability of the state’s remaining refineries, which will result in California losing the entire industry to this misguided program. This regulation will increase transportation and aviation fuel prices for consumers. It will risk significant job losses, including many high-paying union jobs, while reducing funding for essential public services. It will upend California’s fuels market and threaten critical energy and national security assets."

"With regard to these Cap and Investment amendments the rates for the refineries will increase by hundreds of millions," Ariza said. "At the same time, foreign fuel imports coming from the polluting refineries and polluting ships DO NOT HAVE TO PAY these assessments."

"To me, the theme in Andy Walz’s letter from September was simple," Ariza continued. "The business climate in California is unacceptable. The state needed to make real sustainable durable changes to the way the state works with the refineries."

Here is Walz’s September 2025 letter:

"It is a very difficult place to do business. And if we don’t think we can get our return we’re going to put our money somewhere else. And I don’t want to do that.

It’s regulation. It’s the cost of doing business. It’s the cost of labor. It’s the cost of building.

Permitting fees and permitting time. It is a lot of things that make it very difficult for a company like Chevron and for a lot of businesses to do business in California. It’s very expensive."

With the closure of the Phillips Wilmington Refinery and Valero in Benicia "that means we lose another 20% of gasoline that people need to get to work, to get to school, to do the things they need to do. And that means prices are going to go up and it’s going to be less reliable.

I think we are at that crisis mode.

Chevron has been here for 145 years. We would like to stay. We haven’t made any decisions to stay or go yet.

But we need real sustainable durable changes to the way the state works."

Andy Walz, CEO Chevron Corporation

"So what did the state do in response?" Ariza asked. "They doubled down with insane fees on this Cap and Invest!"

"In our current configuration with only seven operating refineries we are absolutely in danger of uncontrolled PRICE SPIKES and ’SHORTAGES.'"

"These price spikes and shortages can be caused by multiple reasons as we had previously discussed. Some of these include storms delaying tankers, dock or equipment problems, unscheduled refinery downtimes, or unrest in various locations across the globe."

"This puts our civilian population and military at significant risk."

"Now three independent oil corporations have submitted separate letters stating that they will shutdown all six of their refineries and leave if the state refuses to negotiate with them on these proposed amendments."

"THIS IS A HISTORICAL PRECEDENT!"
Western States Petroleum Association says that in California we use 7 million gallons of diesel per day, Ariza reminded. "With the shutdown of all six refineries and the loss of 1.186 million barrels per day of crude oil refining capacity the state will lose a minimum of 7 million gallons per day of diesel production. In addition to that loss the state will lose nearly ALL of the remaining jet fuel production for EVERY AIRPORT in the state."

Ariza continued:

"Keep in mind that cities typically have three to five days of food supply on hand. With no diesel to transport food and with the loss of 25 million gallons per day of gasoline production people are going to starve. It’s simple logistics."

"If in May the air resource board adopts the Cap and Invest proposed amendments then I would expect letters from all three corporations stating their intention to shut down and leave the state."

Ariza’s concerns were amplified by War correspondent Michael Yon, who "has spent years tracking these patterns across continents. Now, he says the pieces are finally locking into place—and the result could be a level of famine the modern world has never experienced," The Vigilant Fox confirmed on Substack. "He says a far more dangerous chain reaction is unfolding behind the scenes, one that could hit every grocery store, every supply chain, and every household all at once. He explained that critical maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal, and Turkish Straits are not just trade routes, they’re lifelines for food, fertilizer, and fuel. If even a few of these are blocked at the same time, the effects cascade globally."

"If this happens then the feds have to step in!" Ariza said "The loss of these refineries will cause the largest economical collapse in the history of the United States."

They will redefine the word "SHORTAGE"!

"The civil unrest and probable loss of life in California, Nevada, and Arizona will be unprecedented."

"The threat to the military, the entire west coast, and the nation as a whole will be both real and severe!!!"

And why would Gov. Newsom and the state’s Democrat lawmakers do this to California? Do they really plan to burn this state to the ground to rule over the ashes?

With President Trump’s invocation of the Defense Production Act, overriding California laws, and restarting the Sable Offshore Corp. oil pipeline project, many are hoping that the federal intervention we’ve been asking for is here.

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