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In January 2026, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that it began transferring detainees from Syria to Iraq, starting with 150 high‑risk prisoners from Hasakah and potentially involving up to 7,000 individuals overall. Many challenges threaten this process.
The abrupt handover of Islamic State (ISIS) detention facilities and internally displaced persons (IDP) camps in northeast Syria to Syrian transitional government forces has significantly weakened local security structures. At the same time, mounting political pressure on Kurdish partners in Iraq and Syria has created the most acute risk window for an ISIS resurgence since the group’s territorial collapse in 2019. This shift came as Syrian government forces unexpectedly took control of facilities previously guarded by the Kurdish‑led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), including the massive Al-Hol displacement camp, as reported by France24 and the Associated Press.
This article outlines the present situation in Syria and Iraq, the emerging risks that could enable ISIS to rebuild, and recommendations for action: fortify the detention architecture, accelerate repatriations, and anchor these measures in a functional Kurdish autonomy arrangement in Syria, akin in logic to the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI).
THE STATE OF ISIS: CELLS, CUSTODY, AND CAMPS
Despite its territorial defeat, ISIS remains a potent terrorist network across Syria and Iraq. The UN’s Twenty-first report of the Secretary-General from 2025 noted that the group maintains up to roughly 3,000 fighters across the two countries, demonstrating adaptability despite counterterrorism pressure. Similarly, U.S. Central Command assessments in 2024 recorded a significant increase in ISIS attacks compared to 2023, indicating attempted reconstitution efforts.
According to Al-Monitor, the SDF’s sudden withdrawals in early 2026 triggered uncertainty in over a dozen detention sites holding more than 10,000 former ISIS fighters and thousands of affiliated women and children.
In the same window, Middle East Eye documented disturbances and escape attempts in facilities like Al-Hol and Al-Shaddadi during handover periods, with detainees exploiting brief windows when guards pulled back. The RAND Corporation identified weak physical infrastructure, limited staffing, and overcrowding as key factors that enabled breakouts, recommending reinforced perimeters and expanded guard capacity. Such critical weaknesses raised alarms in the recent U.S. State Department – Interagency Detainee Report: lack of SDF security over roughly 8,400–8,950 ISIS detainees plus tens of thousands more in Al-Hol and Roj collectively represent a potential “ISIS army in waiting,” should greater systemic disruptions occur.
Accelerated Iraqi repatriation of prisoners has steadily reduced the population of Al-Hol and Roj to below 30,000. But the process remains slow. Repatriations for Syrians and third country nationals only accommodate a few hundred departures at a time, despite political agreements intended to facilitate more returns. The result is a smaller yet still dangerous radicalization environment.
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