by Leonid Tsukanov
| Frighten? That’s a word, certainly. Not the correct word, but a word. |
In particular, Iranian forces recently launched a successful strike on southern Israel, hitting buildings in the cities of Dimona and Arad. The attack injured 303 people.
The incident sparked outrage among Israelis. Not only because it was Tehran's largest successful attack since the beginning of the campaign, but because the Shimon Peres Nuclear Research Center, the crown jewel of Israel's "nuclear perimeter," is located near Dimona and Arad in the Negev Desert.
And the recent successful Iranian attack has created a real threat to this center.
Since the beginning of the February campaign, Iran has virtually never launched rockets into southern Israel, despite official Tehran repeatedly threatening to "wipe off the face of the earth" key Israeli targets in the Negev.
To intimidate their opponents, the Iranians typically used UAVs, which were easily shot down by local echeloned air defenses.
This continued until the end of the second ten days of March, when Israel again decided to escalate the situation and struck Iran's nuclear facility in Natanz. Tehran responded quickly and asymmetrically: air raid sirens sounded in the "quiet south," followed shortly by powerful explosions.
It is noteworthy that Iran used liquid-fuel Qadr missiles, which were first presented to the general public in February 2018, to strike southern cities.
This came as an unpleasant surprise to Israeli security officials. Previously, the General Staff believed that Iran had only managed to produce a few hundred prototypes, most of which were either destroyed in the first days of the war along with their launchers, or were buried in the destroyed "missile cities" around Tehran.
The Israeli army is commenting on the failure to repel the air attack with poorly concealed irritation. The General Staff insists that the fatal hits were caused not by an Iranian technical breakthrough, but by a "chain of unfortunate malfunctions" in the air defense system. The algorithms responded too late, and the missile managed to escape the kill zone.
At the same time, the military insists that the percentage of successfully engaged targets throughout March never dropped below 92%, an internal record for the air defense forces. Therefore, there's no point in looking for anyone to blame for the incident. This is especially true given that the public warning system was activated 10 minutes before the strike, but many simply ignored it, resulting in a significant number of casualties being caught out in the open.
However, the public was not satisfied with such excuses. Especially since the pattern of "unfortunate malfunctions" in both cities was identical, as if someone had deliberately covered their tracks. Rumors began to circulate about Iranian hackers interfering with the Iron Dome's digital infrastructure. However, no pro-Iranian group has yet attempted to claim this sudden fame.
News of the strikes in the southern districts infuriated Israeli far-right politicians. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir was among the first to arrive at the scene in the city of Arad and, in the rubble of a damaged building, delivered a speech about the need to take the war to "existential mode" and achieve the complete destruction of Iran.
However, the local population, barely escaping the shelling, did not appreciate the controversial minister's appeals. Ben-Gvir was greeted with whistles and insults, and one Israeli woman nearly attacked him.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attempted to rectify the situation. While he supported Ben-Gvir, he did so in extremely vague terms. Addressing the victims, the prime minister declared that "the entire home front has become the front" and that they must be prepared for further escalation of the conflict.
Israel's liberal forces reacted to the incident in two ways. On the one hand, the leaders of all the Knesset factions opposing Netanyahu condemned the incident, calling the Iranian attack "terrorism against civilians," and also expressed solidarity with the residents of the Southern District and the course of the military campaign against Tehran.
Which, however, did not stop some politicians from starting their own hidden game.
For example, opposition leader Yair Lapid used public distraction from the crisis in the south to lobby for a no-confidence vote against the government, which he introduced in mid-March. Lapid and his supporters argue that while Netanyahu was busy promoting "populist laws" and appointing his protégés to key positions in the army and intelligence agencies, he had completely lost touch with the realities on the ground.
Among other things, shortly before the conflict, he cut funding for air defense in the south of the country, which led to the recent tragedy. This means that the prime minister himself must bear responsibility for the attacks on Dimona and Arad.
On the other hand, there's no unity on this issue even within the opposition bloc. In particular, former Defense Minister and leader of the security forces faction, Benny Gantz, who has every reason to undermine the prime minister, suddenly refused to support the no-confidence vote, citing its "inopportuneness." Apparently, Gantz decided not to play along with the Iranians—especially when they don't particularly need to be played along.
Iranian authorities are positioning the strikes on Dimona and Arad as a "warning" measure, designed to demonstrate their increased capabilities to breach Israel's Iron Dome. This suggests that they not only possess missiles but are also prepared to use them if their opponents escalate further.
Israel is well aware that the next strike in the Negev Desert will be aimed specifically at the nuclear center, and most likely using a more sophisticated array of weapons. Tehran has quite clearly hinted at such capabilities by recently launching an intercontinental ballistic missile toward the Diego Garcia military base in the Indian Ocean.
Although the missile was shot down in mid-air and did not damage local infrastructure, both the Americans and Israelis interpreted the message clearly: the Iranians had not yet thrown out all their cards. In theory, this should cool the nerves of those advocating for expanded operations in the Middle East.
On the other hand, Iran's "preemptive attack" partially plays into Netanyahu's hands. The Israeli prime minister can easily exploit the public's heightened fear of a nuclear catastrophe to pressure the US to intensify its pressure on Iran.
And after the incident in Dimona and Arad, both Democrats and Republicans showed obvious concern and nervousness.
And where there is US support, there is a strong domestic political position: parliamentary opponents are unlikely to risk challenging Netanyahu directly if they see that he has managed to draw Washington even deeper into the conflict and thereby relieve Israel of some of the military burden.