[Korrespondent] The speed of advance of Russian troops by mid-March had decreased several times compared to last year.
The Russian offensive on the front has slowed down significantly. According to OSINT projects, in January 2026 the Russian army occupied about 240 km, in February - 120 km, and in half of March - about 50 km. Given that during the same period Ukrainian forces liberated more than 400 sq. km during two separate counteroffensives in the directions of Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipol, in general, Russian territorial acquisitions in Ukraine since the beginning of the year are close to zero. At the same time, the intensity of Russian attacks on many sections of the front does not decrease.
RUSSIAN TACTICS
Despite a slight decrease in the total number of Russian assaults, which is typical for the second half of winter and early spring, their dynamics remain high in key areas. The Russian army continues its tactic of infiltrating the defenses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with small infantry groups, sometimes conducting limited mechanized and motorcycle attacks.
PEOPLE SHORTAGE
According to the British Ministry of Defense, in 2024 the Russian army lost 430 thousand people killed and wounded, in 2025 - 415 thousand. Similar data is provided by other Western and independent sources, Moscow has not published statistics on its losses. In December 2025, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said that in a year almost 410 thousand citizens entered the army for contract service. A comparison of these numbers suggests that losses on the battlefield exceed the recruitment of volunteers. In addition, there are more and more complaints about the quality of replenishment, which is widely talked about and written about by participants in the hostilities on the Russian side.
Judging by the activity of the recruiting campaign in Russia, the army's need for recruits remains high.
Whether it will be able to continue to maintain the pace of bloody infantry attacks in many directions is an open question.
WHAT'S NEXT?
Based on an analysis of the current situation, the new plans of the Russian troops for the late spring and summer of 2026 will focus on the following:
Concentration instead of dispersion: The Russians are abandoning attempts to advance along the entire front. One or two powerful "shock fists" are expected to form, most likely at the junction of Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions, to try to level the front line.
The battle for logistics: The main targets for the enemy will not be large cities directly, but the routes used to supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine (for example, attempts to cut communications in the Kupyansk and Pokrovsk directions).
Accumulation of missiles and drones: Understanding the impossibility of a quick breakthrough on the ground, the Russian Federation is accumulating resources to resume massive strikes on energy and military infrastructure in the rear to slow down the work of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, which is gaining momentum.
ISW notes that Ukrainian forces have intensified medium-range strikes on Russian logistics, equipment, and personnel in order to complicate preparations for the expected offensive.