by Gevorg Mirzayan
[REGNUM] The war between the United States and Israel against Iran instantly eclipsed other global conflicts in the eyes of the global public. Meanwhile, the less high-profile but bloody conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which began in February, continues.
Indeed. Long may it last, with many bad guys killed on both sides.Hundreds of people are dying—not only and not primarily the military. Kabul is now accusing Islamabad of a targeted attack on a drug addiction hospital in the Afghan capital on March 16. More than 400 patients were killed and another 250 were injured.
| So the Talibs claim. But the hospital was next to the arms depot, so was hit by the glorious secondaries. Someone did not pay attention to the zoning laws when they decided to build there. |
| Of course — mistaking Pakistan for Westerners who care about such things, as opposed to like the Taliban and other jihadis making it the objective. |
| Pro forma rejection noted, but not believed. Y’all need to work on your delivery. |
| Whoa — an admission against interest. Bold! |
Over the past month, Islamabad has launched a series of strikes on Kandahar and Kabul, as well as on Taliban military installations along the border.
In response, Afghan forces have been firing missiles and drones at Pakistani cities, including Islamabad, and regularly report the destruction of Pakistani border posts.
Pakistan has made demands on Afghanistan to end the fighting. Islamabad is demanding that Kabul stop supporting the "Pakistani Taliban" and other separatist organizations in Pakistan.
According to Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir, "peace between the two sides can only prevail if the Afghan Taliban stop supporting terrorism and terrorist organizations "
| The odds of that happening being somewhere between slim and none, just like Pakistan’s response when India makes the same demands of them … |
"The tribes on both sides of the Durand Line have close ties, including kinship ties. They may have some disagreements, but in times of crisis, they stick together," Gleb Makarevich, a research fellow at the Indian Ocean Region Center at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to Regnum News Agency.
According to him, the idea of Pashtun identity will not allow one to simply “give up” one’s brothers in faith, blood, and arms.
| Especially not to whiskey-drinking kaffirs like the general of the Army of the Pure. |
The Pakistanis also cannot force Afghanistan into submission.
"It will be very difficult for them to conduct a ground operation. Pakistan is already engulfed in the peat bog of civil conflict, and it makes no sense for the Pakistani military to expand it by occupying any territory in Afghanistan," says Makarevich.
In turn, the Afghans are also limited in their capabilities.
Yes, they carry out missile and drone strikes on Pakistani cities and regularly report the capture of Pakistani border posts, but this is essentially their limit.
“They are unlikely to be able to carry out a successful offensive operation on any major Pakistani city,” the expert believes.
The only chance for reconciliation remains diplomacy mediated by external powers. But it is slim.
There is not much hope for India, since New Delhi is happy with what is happening.
"India is interested in deepening Pakistani-Afghan differences, since any problems Islamabad faces in Afghanistan automatically mean a decrease in Pakistan's attention to Kashmir," Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the Indian Ocean Region Center at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), explained to Regnum News Agency.
At the same time, the war not only weakens Pakistan and drives additional wedges into the future of Afghan-Pakistani relations, but also creates the basis for further rapprochement between New Delhi and Kabul.
“A fruitful dialogue between Afghanistan and India has been going on for about a year now, and it is built, among other things, on mutual understanding on the Pakistani issue,” the analyst continues.
The United States also has no intention of mediating. Washington has withdrawn from the conflict and stated that Pakistan has the right to self-defense.
The Chinese are trying to reconcile the two sides. Beijing doesn't need this war—Pakistan is an important ally of China, and the Chinese are currently building new, mutually beneficial relations with the Afghans—in the areas of mineral extraction and the fight against anti-Chinese radical Islamist groups.
According to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, the Chinese special envoy is currently conducting shuttle diplomacy sessions between Kabul and Islamabad.
The problem is that even if the Chinese diplomatic mission is successful, it will only lead to a temporary ceasefire.
| Hudna, hudna, hudna! |
A possible way to resolve the ethnic conflict would be to refocus Pakistan's Pashtun identity on the domestic level. And the government is trying to work on this.
"Official Islamabad will continue to combat Pashtun nationalism and encourage those who are loyal to Pakistan and able to combine Pashtun and Pakistani nationalism. They will attempt to somehow integrate the tribes into Pakistan's provincial agenda," Makarevich believes.
| “Because those inbred Pashtun/Pakhton rubes are so stupid they’ll believe anything wrapped up in the right packaging.” |
Pakistan has been and will be divided into ethnic communities of varying degrees of isolation for the foreseeable future, meaning that Pashtun tribes will continue to resent the federal Pakistani government.