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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Is the Iranian Regime Cracking? Police, Soldiers, and Even IRGC Members Not Showing Up to Work |
| 2026-03-06 |
| [HotAir] Is this report real, or Israeli disinformation to create a cascade of defections from the regime's coercive apparatus? At this point, it is hard to say, but the reports that police, soldiers, and IRGC thugs are opting out of risking their lives to protect a regime that is in deep trouble and getting killed at an astonishing rate are certainly plausible. As Ed would say, "too good to check." I suspect that there is at least SOMETHING to these reports.
There are signs that Iranian soldiers, police officers and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are failing to report for duty as the war intensifies, The Economist reported, citing Israeli intelligence sources. “Most importantly, perhaps, Israeli intelligence sources suggest that there are signs of Iranian soldiers, police officers and IRGC members failing to show up for duty,” the magazine said. It cautioned, however, that “military attrition, however overwhelming and effective, by no means guarantees the regime’s demise,” describing regime collapse as Israel’s key war aim and one of President Donald Trump’s shifting goals. https://iranintl.com/en/202603058022 The survival of the Iranian regime depends entirely on its ability to maintain a monopoly on the means of coercion. It's not as if there is massive popular support, or that whatever fraction of the population that does implicitly or explicitly want the regime to survive is eager to put their lives on the line to make it happen. We saw that during the series of protests over the past few months: the only thing that stopped them was murdering tens of thousands of people, which, admittedly, cows a lot of people who are eager for freedom, but not for death or torture.
But it is equally true that at least many, and likely most, of the people who participate in propping up the regime are not really ideologues and true believers. They are people with jobs, or social climbers, or even people who grumble about their bosses but who want to build a life. When the guns are turned on them, how long will that group stick around after they see their friends and colleagues dropping like flies?
We tend to view the Iranian government through the lens of the top leadership and the IRGC, which makes sense most of the time since they run things. But you have to remember that there are parallel, and much less committed (and larger) institutions that are organs of the state more than the regime. The state is a tool the regime uses; the regime is the power structure that tells it what to do. And they are two different things, which is why there is an IRGC in the first place. The IRGC is not the army; it is the regime's enforcers. And the same dual-institutional structure exists within the internal police.
Israel and the US are working mightily to drive a wedge between the government and the regime, in a way not dissimilar to what happened in Venezuela. Cut the head off the snake, graft a new one onto the body to the extent you can.
It's even possible that some of the IRGC line troops will just fade away if they see the regime begin to collapse. That happened in Iraq, and much of the resistance that built up after the war was fueled by the Iranian regime, and not so much by dead-enders from the Saddam regime. What if the Iranian regime falls? Who will fund and prod the dead-enders? How many will sacrifice everything without state support? Who knows? It is unproven, but quite plausible, that the regime's enforcers are having second thoughts, and if so, a new phase of the war will soon start. |
| Posted by:NoMoreBS |
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