by Leonid Tsukanov
| If they want to try butting Israel to death because Israel already cut off their arms and legs, then have at it. |
Despite the damage suffered during the previous confrontation with the Israelis, Lebanese Shiites found the strength to challenge them again.
| If they don’t, they have to believe Allah will reject them even more than Allah has rejected them already. So they’ll all die at Israeli hands, a few at a time. |
Nevertheless, Hezbollah has every chance of thwarting the Israelis by dispersing their forces in several directions.
HEZBOLLAH ON THE EVE OF CONFLICT
Despite the fact that the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah was de jure ended back in 2024, the confrontation continued.
The two sides engaged in sporadic skirmishes in southern Lebanon, and Israeli aircraft carried out periodic harassing strikes on the Arab country's territory throughout the conflict—under the pretext of destroying Hezbollah's "secret fortifications" and equipment—and also hunted down individual Hezbollah officials, usually those closely linked to Iran or the Palestinian Hamas.
As tensions around Iran escalated in January–February 2026, Israel increasingly began to look north, fearing that a Persian preemptive strike would come from there.
Hezbollah, on the other hand, was determined to prove the opposite. Several days before the start of the US-Israeli operation in Iran, the Western press circulated a "secret statement" attributed to Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem. He allegedly assured US officials that the movement did not intend to become involved in the conflict if the strikes on Iran were "limited and symbolic."
This was generally consistent with the new Hezbollah leadership's policy of distancing itself from the long-running proxy conflict, in which the movement suffered serious losses (both human and financial), and focusing on restoring its own position within Lebanon.
As part of the peace process, Lebanese Shiites even began to gradually move toward a compromise on the issue of disarmament and the elimination of secret weapons depots, which greatly pleased official Beirut.
In response to its declarations of neutrality, Hezbollah allegedly received assurances that Tehran's opponents were not planning to unleash a full-scale war and, even in the worst-case scenario, intended only a symbolic escalation.
However, the exact opposite happened: the massive strikes on Iranian territory in the first days of the conflict not only went beyond the “conditional confrontation,” but also exceeded in scale the combined results of the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025.
| Israelis can do taqqiya, too? Sauce for the goose, guys. After all, Hezbollah got a hudna by promising to pull back north of thr Litqni River and disarm, neither of which happened. |
Furthermore, Naim Qassem publicly vowed to "send his fighters to war against the US and Israel," despite the Lebanese government's refusal to support this move.
THE GAUNTLET IS THROWN DOWN
Although the Lebanese Shiite attacks were more of a demonstration—around 15 rockets and several UAVs were fired in several salvos—Israel considered this a harbinger of a larger campaign.
| They pay attention to historic patterns of behaviour… |
Hezbollah has also made several attempts to probe the air defenses of Haifa, where the Jewish state's submarine fleet (presumably equipped with nuclear missiles) is based.
| Iron Dome, Iron Beam, and that other thing. Sorry, guys — you hadn’t a chance. |
| The precedents go back years before Israeli independence, so the distrust is well earnt. |
It didn't take long for retaliatory measures to materialize. In less than 24 hours, Israel launched dozens of airstrikes on Lebanon, primarily in the south. According to Israeli military officials, missile depots and concealed launchers, allegedly belonging to Hezbollah, were hit.
| Missile depots and concealed launchers that Hezbollah had agreed to give up as part of last year’s ceasefire agreement... |
| Payback’s a bitch — right, guys? |
With air strikes increasing in intensity and the imminent start of ground operations, Lebanon's central authorities have attempted to negotiate a peace agreement.
| You do that. In the meantime, Israel will handle the troublemakers on her own. |
Moreover, the Israeli government's military bloc, led by Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, placed primary responsibility for the outbreak of the new conflict in the border region on Beirut: according to him, the Lebanese government and army "did nothing" to disarm Hezbollah, and now "will be held accountable" for their inaction.
| Perhaos not nothing, but clearly not enough, even with all the help the IDF has been giving toward destroying Hezbollah arms caches and killing recalcitrant Hezbollah turbans returning to the south to set up more. |
To achieve satisfaction, London is ready to assist Israeli allies with intelligence and equipment.
| Now they want to be helpful? How nice of them. |
Although Hezbollah is preparing to meet the Israelis in a weakened position and with depleted arsenals, which creates a strong sense of euphoria among the Israelis in advance, they will most likely not have an easy ride in Lebanon.
Operation Raven's Roar, despite claims of its "planned nature," was clearly prepared in a hurry, as evidenced by the chaotic strikes on southern Lebanon, most of which fell on false targets.
In contrast to the successful targeted assassinations, it appears that Israel had intended to attack Lebanon preemptively and thin out the local command structure, but Hezbollah's sudden entry into the war forced the General Staff to urgently revise its plans.
Moreover, the opening of a "second front" is forcing Israel to quickly redeploy resources, including to ensure adequate air support for the advancing ground forces and to strengthen its air defense systems, some of which were redeployed to central areas to protect key targets at the start of the February campaign.
The new direction could weaken, albeit slightly, the pressure on the main issue, which would give Iran the opportunity to gather strength to carry out more significant strikes on Israeli territory.
Moreover, by engaging in a fight with Hezbollah, Israel is unlikely to risk quickly opening a "third front" in Yemen against the Iran-backed Houthis. Consequently, local rebels will have the opportunity to operate more broadly, including by launching privateering operations in the Red Sea.
Given the IRGC's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz,
| Is that still on, or has the US Navy blown all the blockading ships out of the water? |
| We’ll see. |
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