by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] The small state of Somaliland, formally remaining part of Somalia, has found itself at the center of the “great game” of the United States and Israel, which are seeking to create a new anti-Iranian foothold in the Red Sea.
Moreover, the Iranians didn't have time to build a counterweight in Somaliland this time and are now forced to repel their opponents' attacks remotely, with virtually zero effectiveness.
On the other hand, the attempt by Washington and its ally to change the balance, to their displeasure, has stirred up forces that are difficult to suspect of playing along with Tehran.
THE RED SEA'S "ANTECHAMBER"
Somaliland's strategic value lies in its location on the Gulf of Aden, earning it the nickname "the entrance hall" of the Red Sea. On the other side lies Yemen, easily accessible even with outdated missile systems.
Unlike its neighbor, Djibouti, a "nation of military bases," Somaliland isn't balancing between the powers that be. The local leadership maintains a pro-Western orientation and seeks ways to secure Washington's recognition of its statehood, including by leveraging its proximity to the Arabian Peninsula. This, in theory, should have led to a rapid rapprochement with the United States.
However, it was the Israelis who first recognized Somaliland's potential. Back in December 2025, they recognized the region's independence from the rest of Somalia. Naturally, this was an "advance payment"—in exchange for a promise to join the Abraham Accords, which the Israelis had concluded with several Arab states, and to grant them the right to conduct operations in the Red Sea.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seized the opportunity to hint to Washington that Somaliland had "great potential" for containing Iran. The territory was dubbed Tehran's "thorn in its side." The Americans dismissed their allies' outburst, declaring that Donald Trump was "unlikely to follow Israel's example" and would not encourage separatist sentiments in Somalia.
However, over time, the situation changed. And, judging by leaks—albeit contradictory—from the White House, they are "thinking hard" about rapprochement with Somaliland.
The debate was further fueled by Somaliland's Minister of Presidential Affairs, Hadar Hussein Abdi, who recently invited the United States to establish military bases there. Abdi also mentioned that, in addition to the territory, the United States would receive privileged access to resources, including "preliminary explored" rare earth metals.
The public statement by one of the state's key policymakers could easily have been dismissed as improvisation, had it not been preceded by intensive meetings with senior officials from the State Department and the US Africa Command.
It's unlikely Abdi would have risked raising such a sensitive issue publicly without first confirming Washington's genuine interest in expanding its presence in the Horn of Africa. The mineral rights clause is also deliberate—the economic component of the deal is intended to disguise American interest in deploying additional forces on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula.
IRAN WAS CAUGHT OFF GUARD
The establishment of a permanent foothold in Somaliland will allow Iran's adversaries (primarily Israel) to conduct effective operations against the Tehran-backed Yemeni Houthis.
Unlike the islands of Yemen's Socotra archipelago, which the Israelis "divide" with the UAE, Somaliland's territory allows for more complex operations at a lower cost. This is especially true given that the Houthis' main production, fuel, and command centers are concentrated in the coastal zone. One could say the opposite.
Moreover, strengthening Israel and the United States' position in Somaliland prevents a repeat of the comprehensive blockade of the Jewish state's southern ports, while simultaneously providing the opportunity to better monitor local shipping and intercept weapons-laden transport ships and fuel tankers en route to aid the Houthis. This creates the risk of quickly disabling one of the most combat-ready elements of the pro-Iranian "Axis of Resistance."
Meanwhile, Mogadishu's official dissatisfaction with American and Israeli strategists appears to be ignored. Even considering that rapprochement with Somaliland undermines Washington's strategic partnership with the Horn of Africa countries, the hypothetical gain from cutting off airspace to the Houthis ahead of a potential military operation against Iran far outweighs any costs. Therefore, Trump's advisers are unanimously voting for support for the "right to self-determination of the Somaliland people."
The rapid establishment of Israeli and American emissaries in Somaliland largely caught Iran's leadership by surprise. Of course, Tehran could not have failed to notice its opponents' increased interest in the peninsula. However, Tehran's "hawks" apparently expected that, due to the unstable situation in the Middle East and the risk of war between the US and Iran, the Somaliland "presidential office" would drag out negotiations to the last minute, forcing the Americans and Israelis to enter the unrecognized country "through the back door" and in the face of resistance from local opposition forces.
However, Somaliland's elites chose the path of least resistance, readily agreeing to become that very thorn in their side. Iran's few attempts to turn the tide in its favor, with the help of local Orthodox preachers and forces advocating for autonomy from Somalia, but without a "self-government" scenario, were unsuccessful. Somaliland's political space was purged of pro-Iranian loyalists even before Tehran fully entered the game.
UNEXPECTED HELP
However, the US and Israel also failed to fully implement the "Somaliland self-determination" ploy: Türkiye unexpectedly went against it.
Immediately after the Jewish state recognized the independence of Somaliland, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered increased support for the central government of Somalia, including the provision of an additional package of military aid to Mogadishu.
A few days before Abdi's appeal to the American authorities, Ankara sent additional forces, including several F-16 fighter jets, to Somalia's military airfields. Intelligence exchange with Mogadishu intensified, and representatives of Turkish special operations forces and Sadat, a private military company renowned since Erdogan's triumphant Libyan campaign, appeared at the African country's General Staff.
All of this is being presented as "brotherly assistance" and part of Turkey's efforts to combat radical gangs in Africa. In reality, it strongly resembles a planned operation to restore order in a rebellious region under the cover of a limited Turkish contingent.
Moreover, the restoration of Somalia's territorial integrity lies at the core of the policy of Erdogan's close friend, the current leader of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud, and Mogadishu's final recognition of its loss of control over Somaliland is guaranteed to stir up trouble in other regions.
The Turks are rushing to complete their maneuver before the White House approves the establishment of a permanent military mission in Somaliland. Ankara is hoping to secure a concession to develop the mineral resources it has had its eye on for several years.
| President Erdogan always ensures that Turkey profits first. |
Of course, Turkey isn't the only Middle Eastern player trying to curb Somaliland's emergence as a nominally "independent" player. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have also entered the fray, though so far primarily through diplomatic means.
Although the Arab monarchies are at odds over disputes in Yemen and Sudan, the risk of another "external regulator" of the Red Sea routes has forced them to temporarily put aside their differences and launch a campaign to pressure the "mindless rebels" of Somaliland.
Moreover, the Saudis are even more nervous than the Emirates. In the event of a serious escalation in the region, Middle Eastern oil trade will be under threat, which will inevitably impact the kingdom's stability.
And so the House of Saud is trying to put out the nascent fire: confidants close to Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman are literally besieging the White House, trying to dissuade American elites from a potentially fatal decision.
They are also cultivating Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who has strong ties to the Saudi court, promising him mountains of gold in exchange for disrupting the "Somaliland deal."
Of course, Middle Eastern players are currently operating primarily according to the "Swan, Pike, and Crayfish" model, failing to coordinate their actions around Somaliland and constantly interfering with each other. However, ultimately, even this movement is beneficial to Iran. Tehran is buying time to prepare its Yemeni outpost for a possible attack from the other side.
It's quite possible that these efforts will pay off, and plans to recognize Somaliland will be reversed. This is especially true if the region's effectiveness as a staging ground for attacks on Yemen proves less effective than expected in the eyes of American advisers.