Since assuming leadership of al-Qaeda’s Yemeni branch, AQAP, Saad Bin Atif al-Awlaqi has largely maintained the group’s strategic direction: pragmatic Houthi engagement and low-level, anti-STC insurgency.

Despite counter-terrorism gains by the STC, AQAP remains resilient, with increasingly bold attacks and evolving capabilities that have resulted in cyclical flare-ups between the two groups.

Direct hostilities between AQAP and the Houthis ceased in July 2022 and have not resumed. Indicators of cooperation — including drone use, prisoner exchanges, and shared smuggling networks — have increased steadily.

The new AQAP leadership appears more attuned to local communities and actively encourages tensions between local tribes and counter-terrorism forces.