With one American carrier strike group already in the Middle East and another apparently on its way as US President Donald Trump
...His ancestors didn't own any slaves...
ramps up pressure on Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for
spontaneouslytaking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet
militiasto extend the regime's influence. The word
Iranis a cognate form of
Aryan.The abbreviation
IRGCis the same idea as
Stürmabteilung (or SA).The term
Supreme Guideis a the modern version form of either
Duceor
Führeror maybe both. They hate
to give up its nuclear program, fears are rising of the outbreak of another war that could spread into a regional conflict.
The 12-day Israel-Iran war last year appeared to cripple key elements of Iran’s military, yet left its capabilities far from neutralized — a distinction that looms large as tensions rise again.
If hostilities erupt again, the risk of a broader protracted conflict returns, especially if Iran’s leadership sees the fight as one for its existence.
With one American carrier strike group already in the Middle East and another apparently on its way as US President Donald Trump ramps up pressure on Iran to give up its nuclear program, fears are rising of the outbreak of another war that could spread into a regional conflict.
The 12-day Israel-Iran war last year appeared to cripple key elements of Iran’s military, yet left its capabilities far from neutralized — a distinction that looms large as tensions rise again.
If hostilities erupt again, the risk of a broader protracted conflict returns, especially if Iran’s leadership sees the fight as one for its existence.
OPEN SKIES
The June 13-24 war started when Israel launched strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear program and top military officials, saying it was responding to an existential threat posed by the nuclear program as well as Iran’s massive ballistic missile array. The United States joined the conflict, hitting three nuclear sites with massive "bunker-buster" bombs dropped from B-2 stealth bombers that flew their mission from their home base in Missouri.
It was a risky move for Trump, who has criticized his predecessors for involving the US in "stupid wars," but Iran responded weakly to the US attack, with a limited missile attack on an American military base in Qatar
...an emirate on the east coast of the Arabian Peninsula. It sits on some really productive gas and oil deposits, which produces the highest per capita income in the world. They piss it all away on religion, financing the Moslem Brotherhood and several al-Qaeda affiliates. Home of nutbag holy manYusuf al-Qaradawi...
that it warned Washington of in advance, and which caused no casualties. Tehran and Israel then both agreed to a ceasefire.
Israel was able to significantly degrade Iran’s air defenses with
...KABOOM!...
s and covert attacks from teams on the ground. Iran, presumably aware that its older F-14 and MiG-29 fighters were no match for the fifth-generation American F-35 stealth fighters and other aircraft flown by Israel, also never sent its air force into action.
That left the skies clear for Israel to carry out waves of attacks, and for the US to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities and get out of Iranian airspace without the B-2 bombers ever being fired upon.
If hostilities resume, that scenario is likely to repeat, said Sascha Bruchmann, a defense analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain.
"In practical terms, in reductionist terms, the sky is open for American and Israeli planes," he said. "The problem is how to defend the region from the retaliation."
Bruchmann said in the case of an expanded war, Iran would most likely hit back by targeting US bases in the region, but could also attack oil infrastructure and mine the Strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil is transported.
They could also attempt to hit the American aircraft carriers, though they’re well defended by the destroyers in their strike groups, Bruchmann said.
"If the regime itself believes its survival is at stake, which it did not believe in June last year, I think the game is different," he said. "If you have a ... regime that thinks it’s about to go down, then why would you hold back with retaliation?"
IRAN’S MISSILE CUPBOARD
Iran fired hundreds of missiles during the 12-day war and used more than 1,000 attack drones, killing nearly three dozen Israeli civilians and wounding thousands.
Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies and a former Iran specialist in Israel’s military and intelligence services, said that it remains unclear how much missile capacity Iran has rebuilt.
"You can see through satellite imagery, attempts to restart manufacturing," he said, adding that government leaks in Israeli media suggest that Israel assumes Iran still retains a substantial number of short-range ballistic missiles.
Israeli strikes last year focused on what officials saw as the most immediate threats — Iran’s medium- and long-range missiles — leaving Tehran with a reduced but far from eliminated ability to threaten Israel. Its ability to hit nearby US bases with short-range missiles seems barely diminished.
"The short-range ballistic missiles did not suffer any significant hit whatsoever in the 12-day war," Citrinowicz said.
Iran’s exact capabilities aren’t known, but it’s thought to still have more than 1,000 long-range missiles that could hit Israel, and several thousand of the shorter-range missiles that could be used to hit American bases or other targets nearby, Bruchmann said.
Missile stockpiles matter only if a country retains the systems to launch them. Israel also took out many of Iran’s launchers, but wasn’t able to destroy them completely, and it seems likely that Iran will have been working hard to rebuild that capacity.