After an overview of some of the key land-based political and security challenges confronting Somalia, the report analyses the resurgence of piracy in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean since late 2023, the smuggling of munitions, components and dual-use items between the Horn of Africa and Yemen, and the evolving competition over ports and foreign military bases across the region.
The entire 45 page report (PDF) can be found here
Somalia has been the site of a protracted security and governance crisis since the shattering of its state institutions in the final years of the Cold War. This crisis has reverberated within the Horn of Africa, but also across the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean. The shards of the Somali state have been gradually pieced back together, with a fragmented (but internationally supported) federal state nominally in charge of southern and northeastern areas of the country, and a breakaway Republic of Somaliland more effectively projecting power over Somalia’s northwest, while seeking international recognition.
These successor states have been locked into an uneasy coexistence, as the federal government in Mogadishu – with the assistance of regional and international militaries – attempts to stave off jihadist insurgents, notably al-Shabaab.
Instability in Somalia has shaped – and is increasingly shaped by – maritime-security dynamics. Somali piracy has had an outsized effect on global shipping, though the region has also experienced growing competition over both commercial and military ports. This report focuses primarily on these evolving dynamics of maritime security that surround the littoral states of the Horn of Africa, specifically the Federal Republic of Somalia, the Republic of Somaliland, and the comparatively stable Republic of Djibouti.
The report surveys different expressions of maritime insecurity in the region, and traces the influence of external interests and key non-state actors over this domain. Following an overview of some of the key land-based political and security challenges confronting Somalia – notably tensions surrounding Somali’s planned 2026 presidential elections, amid mounting territorial gains made by al-Shabaab – the report engages with the resurgence of piracy in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean since late 2023.
The recent deterioration of maritime security has followed a prolonged period of relative calm in the waters off the Somali coast, which resulted in the redeployment of international anti-piracy fleets and the relaxation of commercial risk-management practices. These factors – alongside the distraction posed by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea – have converged to create an opening that Somali pirates have been quick to exploit. Although Somali piracy remains at lower levels than during its 2008–13 peak, its re-emergence speaks to a failure to address security deficiencies on land and to tackle piracy’s underlying causes.
The report then examines the flow of munitions, components and dual-use items between the Horn of Africa and Yemen. The combination of state-sponsored arms supplies, primarily from Iran, and the activities of smugglers and arms brokers on both sides of the Gulf of Aden has created a dense network of trading relations that has thrived in the context of internal conflicts and geopolitical discord. This network appears to largely transcend ideological divisions, to the benefit of armed groups across the region, and may give rise to increased sharing of technical knowledge among armed groups, notably with regards to missiles and uninhabited aerial vehicles.