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| Africa North |
| Summary of the 2026 Security Map in the African Sahel, classified by 'Source of Threat' and 'Scope of Expansion' |
| 2026-02-04 |
Translated Text: Summary of the 2026 Security Map in the African Sahel, classified by "Source of Threat" and "Scope of Expansion": 1. Core Countries (Hotbed) These are the countries exporting instability and witnessing an "existential conflict": - Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger: Situation in 2026: Shift of activity from "guerrilla warfare" in the peripheries to "siege of capitals" and targeting sovereign facilities (airports and bases). - Key Feature: Loss of control over vast border areas, and full integration between jihadist groups and smuggling networks. 2. "Contagion" Countries (Expansion Zones) These are the countries to which the threat has spread this year as a result of pressure or security vacuums: Libya (Northern Front): It is currently the weakest link and the most affected. - Threat: Return of the South (Fezzan) to become a "rear base" and supply line for groups in Niger and Mali, with monitoring of attempts to control border crossings to ensure the flow of weapons and fuel. - Benin and Togo (Southern Front): - Threat: Subject to ongoing incursions in their northern regions aimed at reaching the ports of the Gulf of Guinea. Summary: The 2026 map is a "breakout" map, as armed groups strike northward (toward Libya) for arming, and southward (toward the coasts) for funding.
Translated Text: On the African Sahel coast, Daesh has been fighting there since 2015 and Al-Qaeda since 2012 Before the coups that the Sahel witnessed in 2022 with Russian support They were fighting the governments backed by France and the Western influence there in general So it's absurd to claim that France is the one moving them now to strike the Russian influence, because the fighting has been ongoing since 2012 anyway |
| Posted by:badanov |