by Gevorg Mirzayan
| Sure — let Russia spend their money and manpower riding herd on the jihadis in their caliphate for a while. It’s statistically possible that in their cynical sophistication they’ll so a better job, despite being just as much despised unbelievers from the perspective of the local branch of Al Qaeda in Syria. |
In total, over the course of the calendar year, according to him, 13 Syrian delegations visited Moscow, including those headed by the Prime Minister and the Minister of Defense.
For some, this pace may seem surprising.
Just two years ago, al-Sharaa was considered Russia's enemy and fought against the Moscow-recognized Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad. Accordingly, many expected that after the capture of Damascus, he would continue to be listed as Moscow's adversary—and, in the words of some Syrian activists, would "take revenge for the suffering inflicted on the Syrian people."
In simple terms, for supporting Assad.
However, Syria's new leader has proven to be a much more pragmatic man. He understands that his country is currently in no position to squander potential partners, especially partners on the level of Russia.
" Now, in this new reality, thanks in part and above all to your efforts, relations between Syria and Russia are developing," the Russian leader stated.
In fact, Damascus needs several things from Moscow.
First, political support and recognition of Ahmed al-Sharaa as the sole government of a united Syria. The president is currently working to reassemble the country and restore its territorial integrity.
The latest success – and a rather resounding one – was the displacement of Kurdish forces (who had seized a significant part of the eastern part of the country, including oil-bearing lands on the eastern bank of the Euphrates) to their historical territory and forcing them to recognize the central authority of Damascus.
And Moscow appreciated these efforts, as they also demonstrated the resilience of the current Syrian government.
"We have always advocated for the restoration of Syria's territorial integrity, as you know, and we support all your efforts in this direction. I hope that the integration of the Euphrates region is undoubtedly a crucial step in this direction," Vladimir Putin said.
However, these are not the last territories that are expected to be returned.
"Russia can play a role in accelerating the integration of not only northeastern Syria but also the south. For example, the Druze-populated province of Suwayda," political scientist and RIAC expert Kirill Semenov explained to Regnum News Agency.
Moreover, he said, Moscow could also work with Israel. During the civil war, Tel Aviv, in addition to the previously occupied Golan Heights, took control of other lands in southern Syria. It began creating a kind of security belt in the event of a conflict with the new Syrian authorities.
And now he needs to be somehow convinced to return what belongs to someone else.
Secondly, al-Sharaa needs help in rebuilding the country.
Nearly 15 years of civil war have brought Syria, already impoverished, to a state of complete and utter devastation. Assistance is needed to restore the power system (which, even under Assad, was on the brink of self-destruction, to the point where people were removing power lines and selling them for scrap metal) and the railways.
In general, a lot of things.
And since a significant portion of Syria's infrastructure was created first by Soviet and then Russian specialists, Russia now has the necessary expertise for restoration work.
Therefore, Moscow has already indicated its readiness to engage in the process. According to Putin, Russia's authorized economic operators, including those in the construction sector, "are ready for this joint work."
Third, assistance in rebuilding the Syrian army. Fighters in carts and jeeps are certainly good and even somewhat beautiful, but a fully-fledged Middle Eastern state requires a different level of armed forces.
"Syria is interested in restoring military-technical cooperation. Its army has a lot of Soviet-made equipment, and much of it is in disrepair," explains Semenov.
Accordingly, Moscow is required to provide repair bases and spare parts supplies, as well as, where necessary, equipment modernization.
And Russia is ready to help with this—for an appropriate fee. This could come not only in the form of cash or barter (for example, food), but also through mutual settlements. This could include payment for Russian military facilities remaining in Syria.
Moscow is very interested in the future of its bases in Latakia and Tartus. Not only do they allow Russia to maintain a military and political presence in the Middle East, but they also serve as a vital logistical hub for supporting military and economic operations in Africa.
And now they are in limbo.
The Syrian authorities aren't expelling Russian troops, and they're talking about the possibility of them staying—but in the year since the current government came to power, no documents have been signed on this matter. "We need to move on to a concrete phase, to signing agreements on the status of the Russian military presence and its future," the expert concluded in an interview with Regnum News Agency.
Of course, there are those who, in theory, are not entirely happy with the way relations between Damascus and Moscow are developing. For example, Iran, a former key partner of Bashar al-Assad, is being treated extremely harshly by the new Syrian authorities.
However, the Iranians have no time for Syria now - they would rather deal with their own problems and the American fleet.
Moreover, if, with Moscow's mediation, it is possible to somehow restore the logistics of supporting Iranian proxies from Hezbollah (which previously went through Syrian territory), then Tehran will be quite satisfied with this.
In theory, this cooperation might also be unpopular with Turkey, a key partner of the current Syrian government. According to Semenov, if relations between the new Syrian government and Moscow go too far, Turkey will begin to see Russia as a competitor and put a spoke in its wheel.
However, this is not happening yet.
Partly because Moscow and Damascus could be years away from deepening bilateral relations to a level dangerous for Ankara. And partly because the Turks have decided not to play the "dog in the manger" role.
They understand that Syria is unable to resolve all of its problems (economic, infrastructural, and military) on its own. And the failure to resolve these issues, in turn, worsens the position of Turkey's allies in Damascus, including in the eyes of the Syrian population, who do not want to live without electricity, an economy, and an army.