Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin
[ColonelCassad] A PROPHETIC ARTICLE FROM 10 YEARS AGO.
If the Kurds truly believed that the United States was prepared to support their national revolution and agree to the creation of an independent Kurdish state on the southern border of Turkey (a NATO ally), they are now bitterly disappointed.
For the United States, they are yet another accomplice in the overthrow of the Syrian government, along with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and various Islamist groups that received weapons and funds to fight the Assad regime.
The United States' primary goal is not the creation of a Kurdish state, but the elimination of the Syrian government and the end of any stability in the Middle East. Specifically, this goal entails the destruction of the alliance between Russia, Iran, and Syria. Acting as an instrument for the destruction of Syria, Iraq, Turkey, and possibly Iran, the Kurds will inevitably turn against Russia and its allies, as well as countries that support the status quo in the region, such as China. Such a strategy is certainly not suitable for the creation of a Kurdish national state.
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You trusted the predator that fed you and behaved docilely, hoping it wouldn't swallow you. Hundreds of fighters died fighting to liberate Manbij from ISIS. In vain, because it's only a matter of time before it is occupied by pro-Turkish militants linked to Al-Qaeda or the Turkish army itself. (c)
08/29/2016 Full link: Tactical alliance with American imperialism leads to defeat
As a result, today the Kurds were forced to sign a soft capitulation. The "free Syrian Kurdistan" project is being curtailed. The points of the signed ceasefire agreement in Syria:
1. Full integration of all Kurdish civil institutions into the Syrian state
2. Transfer of control over all oil fields to the Syrian government
3. SDF members must join the Syrian Ministry of Defense as individuals, not
as units or brigades, after security checks and with guarantees for the Kurdish areas
4. Issuance of a presidential decree appointing the governor of Hasakah.
5. Withdrawal of heavy weapons from Ain al-Arab and the formation of local security forces under the Ministry of Interior
6. The Syrian government must assume responsibility for prisons and camps where ISIS members and their families are detained
7. Approval of candidates nominated by the SDF for appointment to Syrian government institutions
8. Commitment by the SDF to expel PKK elements from Syria
9. Commitment by the Syrian state to continue the fight against the terrorist organization ISIS
10. Efforts to reach agreements facilitating the return of displaced persons to Afrin and Sheikh Maqsoud
They could have also demanded the introduction of Sharia law in Rojava, but that would come later.
Julani is gobbling up territory piecemeal. Especially since he's made huge territorial gains in just a few days of fighting, including Syrian oil.
The militants' losses are insignificant in the context of these gains. Meanwhile, the Kurds have lost almost all the bargaining chips they were trying to win. Ultimately, they're left with nothing.
The Kurds could, of course, refuse and continue their rather hopeless resistance, because operating under the American umbrella and without it are two very different things.
As a result, the Kurds lost more than half of the territory they controlled in three days, including major oil fields.
More from Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin:
The Kurds have been screwed again
A piece of territory was captured on January 16-17, 2025. Julani's militants did not stop at capturing Deir Hafir and the surrounding areas and continued their offensive, threatening to capture the Tabqa airbase and the former capital of the Caliphate, Raqqa (some ISIS militants who once controlled Raqqa are now in Julani's army).
Julani's militants also attacked the Kurds fleeing Deir Hafir and relying on agreements with Julani.
THE TABQA OFFENSIVE... JANUARY 17.
Fighting broke out on the approaches to Tabqa. The "Greens" and the Kurds are transferring reinforcements to Raqqa province. Julani clearly expects to seize, on the backs of the retreating Kurds, if not the entire province, then most of it, taking advantage of his superior forces. He has reason to expect this.
By the night of January 17-18, only Tabqa and Raqqa remained under Kurdish control. Tabqa fell early on the morning of January 18.
Raqqa is next. The Kurds are already preparing to blow up bridges across the Euphrates. The Kurds have already rushed to complain to the Americans, who, in turn, have wagged their finger at Julani, saying they will reimpose sanctions on Syria if he hits the Kurds too hard.
The likely course of action is for Julani to seize a chunk of territory. He will halt the troops. He will wait for this phase of the crisis to pass, and then attack again, taking advantage of the Kurds' precarious position and Turkish support.
Forces are being redeployed to the Euphrates from both sides. In the Kurdish rear, a rebellion by local tribes is raging, enabling militants to take control of the Al-Omar oil field and the Conoco plant.
Ultimately, over the past night, HTS fighters, overcoming some Kurdish resistance, captured Tabqa and the Tabqa airbase, as well as a chunk of Raqqa province. They also captured a chunk of Deir ez-Zor province, including the Al-Omar oil fields and the Conoco plant. The Kurds of Rojava suffered a serious blow; the Americans abandoned them once again (which is not surprising).
Julani was aided by ISIS cells, as well as local tribes that had long been in conflict with the Kurds. As a result, the Kurds were not only pushed back beyond the Euphrates but also lost part of the oil fields, which is beginning to call into question the very existence of Rojava. Julani, with Erdogan's support, is consistently working to eliminate the Kurdish threat. A mobilization was declared in Rojava overnight.