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Caribbean-Latin America

Vandergriff analysis of US attack and seizure of Venezuela

2026-01-06

I highly recommend, for those on Facebook, that you also take a few minutes to read and ponder his preliminary thoughts on the subject posted here. I’d have shared it, but I can’t figure out how to copy FB posts. Hattip lotp.
[Substack] The January 3, 2026, U.S. operation in Venezuela

...a country in Central America that sits on an enormous pool of oil. Formerly the most prospereous country in the region, it became infested with Commies sniffing almost unlimited wealth. It turned out the wealth wasn't unlimited, the economy collapsed under the clownish Hugo Chavez, the murder rate exceeded places like Honduras and El Salvador. A significant proportion of the populace refugeed to Colombia and points south...
—codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve—represents a textbook example of modern maneuver warfare executed through mission command principles, aligning closely with the evolution through the generations of war framework.

I’ve long advocated for adaptive, decentralized leadership that empowers subordinates to seize initiative, much like the Prussian/German traditions that birthed Auftragstaktik (mission-type tactics). This raid embodies that ethos, contrasting sharply with the rigid, centralized planning failures seen in recent conventional operations.

GENERATIONS OF WAR CONTEXT

1st Generation (line and column, attrition-based) — Obsolete for this context.
2nd Generation (firepower/attrition, linear) — Echoes in large-scale conventional sieges, but not dominant here.
3rd Generation (maneuver, speed, shock) — The core of this operation: rapid penetration, decisive strikes on centers of gravity (leadership), exploiting surprise and tempo to collapse enemy cohesion.
4th Generation (asymmetric, non-state, blurred lines) — Elements present in the narco-terrorism framing and hybrid threats, but the U.S. applied 3rd/4th hybrid tactics.
5th Generation (information, cyber, perception dominance) — Preceded by months of blockade, strikes on drug assets, and narrative control (designating Maduro’s Cartel of the Suns as terrorists).

The operation fused 3rd Generation maneuver with 5th Generation enablers: overwhelming but precise preparatory strikes to shape the battlespace, followed by a lightning coup de main by elite forces.

MANEUVER WARFARE AND MISSION COMMAND ANALYSIS
Open-source reports describe a multi-service, multi-echelon effort: Naval assets (e.g., carrier groups like USS Gerald R. Ford, amphibious ships like USS Iwo Jima) enforced a de facto blockade/siege around Venezuela for months, targeting oil tankers, drug boats, and building pressure. This set conditions by degrading logistics, air defenses, and regime confidence—classic shaping operations in maneuver theory.

When conditions ripened (intelligence from a long-term CIA source inside Venezuela detailing Maduro’s routines, diet, pets, movements), Tier 1 SOF (Delta Force, supported by 160th SOAR "Night Stalkers") executed the decisive strike. Over 150 aircraft suppressed air defenses across northern Venezuela and Caracas starting ~2:00 a.m. local time, clearing corridors for helicopter insertions.

Delta operators fast-roped into Maduro’s compound (likely in or near Fuerte Tiuna military base), captured him and his wife Cilia Flores amid resistance (U.S. forces came under fire), and exfiltrated within ~2.5—3 hours (Maduro and Flores flown out by ~3:29—4:29 a.m. ET, arriving in New York later that day).

No U.S. fatalities reported (some minor injuries possible), one helicopter damaged but mission-continued, and the HVTs were flown out via ship/helicopter to New York for charges related to narco-terrorism (indictment from 2020, bounty increased to $50 million in 2025).

This was pure mission command: Decentralized execution with commander’s intent clear ("capture HVTs, minimize U.S. losses, enable rapid exfil"). Subordinate leaders—pilots, assaulters, intel enablers—adapted in real time to terrain they’d never seen, live fire in proximity to insertions, and unexpected resistance. Synchronization was achieved not through rigid matrices but through shared understanding, rehearsals (on mock-ups), and trust in small-unit initiative.

The "small things" mattered: precise timing, overwhelming but targeted violence, and focus on the objective over micromanagement. The op involved Delta Force assaulters, FBI Hostage Rescue Team for formal arrest, 160th SOAR helicopters flying low over water, and air cover from F-22s, F-35s, F/A-18s, EA-18s, B-1s, and RPAs launched from 20 bases.

Compare to Afghanistan’s 2021 withdrawal: A massive, conventional force (BCT/MEU scale) struggled with a "simple" retrograde under political constraints, losing equipment, lives, and prestige.

Centralized MDMP bogged down planning; brigade-level focus on "big things" (moving thousands) masked low OR rates and poor small-unit basics. Here, elite units inverted that: Focus on the little things (individual skills, rehearsals, adaptability) enabled success in a complex, high-risk op.

Doctrine matters—special operations emphasize decentralized planning (quicker than standard MDMP), high training quality, and mission focus over scale. Money helps (SOF budgets), but it’s the adaptive mindset that wins.

The gap isn’t just unit quality; it’s philosophical. Regular forces train for broad, predictable tasks (deploy brigade globally); SOF for narrow, high-stakes ones with uncertainty. This validates decades of investment in Tier 1 units and 160th SOAR. The op’s speed (months prep but

The sections on the post-op transition and next steps for the Armed Forces can be read at the link.

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Posted by: ed in texas 2026-01-06 12:19

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