by Evgeniya Kondakova
[REGNUM] As we look back on the past year, some events are met with the refrain, "Who could have imagined this just a few months ago!" And it's true: much is impossible to predict. But there are still some things we can definitely expect.
Predictions are hard. Especially about the future.
This category also includes elections in individual countries – and not only countries.
US CONGRESS: THE DREAM OF IMPEACHMENT
On November 3, American citizens will have to re-elect the entire House of Representatives (435 congressmen) and 1/3 of the Senate (33 seats) in midterm elections.
The outcome of the vote will affect not only how both chambers of Congress function in the coming years, but also how the remaining half of Donald Trump's presidential term unfolds.
Now his fellow party members hold a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, making it easier for the head of state to push through his initiatives and contain his political opponents.
However, in the United States, it has become customary for the party whose candidate wins the presidential election to lose the midterm elections to the lower house of Congress.
So, a shift of control of the House of Representatives to the Democrats is quite likely. Of course, not specifically because of this established pattern. But Trump himself says it's not a given that the Republicans will remain in the majority there.
And if this happens, then the next House of Representatives, with a majority of opponents of the current occupant of the White House, could, for example, launch another impeachment procedure (Trump has already given several grounds for removal from office, the most recent being the attack on Venezuela without the knowledge of Congress).
The process will, of course, stall in the Senate, where, if predictions come true, Trump's fellow party members will still hold the majority. They won't remove him from office, but they'll sap his blood. Not to mention blocking his legislative initiatives.
Even in the minority, Democrats are putting obstacles in the way of the Republican president. For example, by delaying approval of a permanent budget in lieu of a temporary one, which runs until January 30.
This creates a real risk of another shutdown, even as the US has just endured the longest government shutdown in history.
To maintain its political position, the Republican Party decided to resort to a method known as gerrymandering, or simply redrawing the boundaries of electoral districts to suit its own needs.
As a result, in Republican Texas, as the Texas Tribune notes, the president's political force will be able to obtain up to 79% of the 38 seats in the House of Representatives that the state has, instead of 66% following the 2024 elections.
However, this technique does not work everywhere.
The Indiana Senate rejected Trump's proposal to redraw congressional districts, even though most of the seats there are held by members of the president's party and the measure would have allowed local Republicans to increase their representation in Congress.
As Republicans who voted against it explained in a comment to the Associated Press, the whole issue was due to excessive pressure from the White House.
In general, the upcoming November vote is not only about the redistribution of seats in Congress: after November 3, 2026, preparations for the 2028 presidential elections will begin.
Trump will watch this undisturbed, knowing he doesn't need to run for reelection. However, his image as president is inextricably linked to that of his party and members of his administration.
He has already publicly announced that he sees two key members of the current team as his successors: Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
UN SECRETARY-GENERAL: GEOGRAPHICAL TRADITIONS AND GENDER BALANCE
The term of the UN Secretary-General, Portuguese António Guterres, expires on December 31, 2026, so elections for his successor will take place at the end of July.
| Good. Here’s hoping the next one is not so vile. |
Applicants for this position must possess leadership qualities, professional skills in diplomacy and communications, knowledge of several languages, and extensive experience in the field of international relations.
On November 26, Argentina nominated its candidate. It's one of the country's most prominent career diplomats, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director Rafael Grossi, who announced his ambition to lead the UN back in April.
He meets all the requirements: he served as Argentina's representative to NATO, the UN and the IAEA, as well as Argentina's ambassador to Austria and chairman of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and speaks English, French, German and Dutch.
At first glance, this seems like an ideal candidate, ready to be appointed right now. Moreover, in accordance with the historical tradition of geographic rotation, the next Secretary-General should come from Latin America and the Caribbean. The last time this happened was in the last century—from 1982 to 1991, the Organization was led by Peruvian Javier Pérez de Cuéllar.
However, there's a lot of talk within the UN along the lines of "it's a shame this post has never been held by a woman, and it would be great to rectify that now."
| The UN is in bad enough shape as it is. Adding DEI to the mix seems unwise. |
| Both ladies sound like they have exactly the wrong kind of experience for a world with Donald Trump’s 5th gen warfare disruptions. |
As was the case with the appointment of the President of the 80th session of the UN General Assembly, due to which this high post was taken by the granddaughter of an SS veteran, a convinced Nazi, Annalena Baerbock, who, as head of the German Foreign Ministry, was distinguished by her undiplomatic behavior.
It's worth noting, however, that being female isn't the only thing that both Bachelet and Greenspan can take credit for.
In turn, CNN claimed back in the fall of 2023 that the favorite among candidates for the position of the new Secretary-General would be Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley, known for her active fight against climate change.
Also in 2022, she launched the Bridgetown Initiative, an action plan aimed at reforming the international financial system to more effectively deliver aid to developing countries. Mottley has not yet been officially nominated as a candidate.
In recent years, the UN has ceased to play its role as an international organization that facilitates the resolution of tense situations in various regions. Take Ukraine, for example: Guterres and his team are hushing up numerous facts that cast a shadow on the Kyiv regime and are delaying the examination of evidence provided by the Russian side.
With the arrival of a new Secretary-General, there is a possibility that the UN will nevertheless become more involved in world affairs in a constructive manner.
BRAZIL: NO INTRIGUE, BUT INTERESTING
Latin America will also be in the spotlight of the global community in 2026 due to the presidential elections in the region's largest country, Brazil.
There is nothing, at least for now, to indicate that the current head of state, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, will face any problems in his re-election, but there are some nuances that deserve attention.
A poll conducted by AtlasIntel from December 10–15 showed that Lula would have won under any scenario in the first and second rounds of the election: in the first round, he would have received 47.9% of the vote; his predecessor's son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 21.3%; and São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, 15%. In the second round, the gap between Lula and Bolsonaro Jr. would have been 12% (53% to 41%), and with Freitas, just 4%.
"Flávio's announcement that he would run with his father's support has shaken Brazil's political class, as well as investors who had been betting on Freitas as the opposition figure best able to unseat Lula in 2026," Bloomberg notes.
However, just a few days after announcing the launch of his election campaign, Bolsonaro Jr. made a statement that shocked many: "There's a chance I won't go all the way." He thus indicated that he might withdraw from the election, but there was a "price."
Experts considered this an attempt to negotiate concessions for the father, who was sentenced to 27 years for attempting a coup.
Theoretically, this is possible. If Congress passes a right-wing bill that would reduce sentences for a number of charges, including treason, and President Lula doesn't veto it.
In practice, however, such an outcome is unlikely, something Flavio realized when he soon reaffirmed his firm intention to compete for the highest government post.
Not everyone on the right welcomed his aspirations. The radical wing of the Liberal Party supports Flávio, but the moderate conservative wing, along with business leaders, does not.
Considering the former president's son unpredictable and ideologically rigid, they want to nominate Freitas, who has built a successful political career (he was Brazil's Minister of Infrastructure under Jair Bolsonaro ), as president. Moreover, he has a better chance in the election race with Lula.
Freitas himself, despite his competitiveness, publicly announced his support for Flavio if he decided to run, and expressed his respect for his father.
Despite being in prison, Jair Bolsonaro retains significant influence over Brazil's conservative movement. By supporting his son's election campaign, the former president effectively writes off all other right-wing contenders who lack the political strength to advance to the second round.
However, the official nomination of presidential candidates will not take place until August 2026. And then it will become clear what the right-wingers, among whom a split is already emerging, have agreed upon.
Related:
António Guterres 01/04/2026 'That's where our oil is.' Trump explained the reasons for the attack on Venezuela
António Guterres 12/19/2025 Maduro Responds to Trump: the Venezuelan Navy Will Escort Oil Tankers
António Guterres 11/26/2025 Lavrov called the turnout of the UN’s guilt to transfer data on the events in Bucha
António Guterres 01/04/2026 'That's where our oil is.' Trump explained the reasons for the attack on Venezuela
António Guterres 12/19/2025 Maduro Responds to Trump: the Venezuelan Navy Will Escort Oil Tankers
António Guterres 11/26/2025 Lavrov called the turnout of the UN’s guilt to transfer data on the events in Bucha
Related:
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 01/04/2026 'That's where our oil is.' Trump explained the reasons for the attack on Venezuela
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 12/16/2025 Chile: Another commie gov’t bites the dust
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 09/22/2025 Brazil excludes the United States from the UN Forum for the Defense of Democracies
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 01/04/2026 'That's where our oil is.' Trump explained the reasons for the attack on Venezuela
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 12/16/2025 Chile: Another commie gov’t bites the dust
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 09/22/2025 Brazil excludes the United States from the UN Forum for the Defense of Democracies