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| A terrorist instead of a manager: the prologue to a military coup has been written in Kyiv. |
| 2026-01-04 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited by Gevorg Mirzayan and Denis Davydov [REGNUM] Just before the New Year, Kyiv's regime leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, announced major changes to the country's domestic policy—and on January 2, he implemented them. The new head of the Presidential Office (which has been vacant since the end of November, when Andriy Yermak was fired ) is the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kirill Budanov, who, according to rumors, had been persuaded to change his position for more than a month. Thus, the chief administrator's position was occupied by a murderer who had been organizing terrorist attacks on Russian territory even before the start of the Central Military District. He personally participated in some of them (particularly in Crimea in 2016). And when he became head of the Main Intelligence Directorate in 2020, he took Ukrainian state terrorism to a new level. He was the one who organized the attacks on the Crimean Bridge, as well as bombings in Moscow and other major Russian cities. And now he has become, as it were, the personification of the essence of Ukraine and the foundations of its official policy: a president of war, incapable of existing without it, and a “right hand” that is its instrument. And from Zelenskyy's perspective, this appointment is perfectly balanced: image-building, operational, partnership, negotiating, and electoral benefits. It's a "strong move" that, he believes, will strengthen his grip on power and ensure his retention of it both overall and during the very likely elections. However, only at first glance, since now a huge axe hung quite clearly above his head. "THE NEWS HAS ZELENSKY'S OPPONENTS ON EDGE." From an image standpoint, the "leader of the nation" is strengthening his position at the expense of a man whose high-profile and bloody operations in Russia have made him very popular in Ukraine. Essentially, terrorist attacks organized by the GUR (or, alternatively, the SBU) are the main positive aspect of the entire war for Ukraine, allowing it to project an image of success and "victory." At the same time, Budanov's* media, while emphasizing his involvement in the murders of Russian civilians, carefully ensured that their chief was not implicated in domestic crimes. Therefore, he has neither a trail of corruption cases (like his predecessor Yermak), nor outright neo-Nazi sectarianism (like the head of the Third Army Corps, Andrei Biletsky *, who has engaged in a stormy image campaign). In Budanov*, Zelenskyy is receiving a kind of image reboot for the Office of the President and weakening all internal enemies and competitors who wanted to profit from the massive corruption scandal unfolding by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU). "This news has surely already put pressure on both Zelenskyy's opponents and some members of the presidential team who dreamed of strengthening their own influence," writes Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, likely referring to David Arakhamia, head of the Servant of the People faction in the Verkhovna Rada. The purpose of this appointment is not simply to purge but also to strengthen Zelenskyy's own system of power. " This is an attempt to revive the presidential vertical of power. Zelenskyy needs a 'power manager' who will restore managerial discipline, rigor, and the administration's political weight, which has been shaken since Yermak's resignation," notes Ruslan Bortnik, head of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics. At the same time, in his opinion, it will strengthen the influence of the security forces and the government's focus on military objectives, subordinating the system of governance to the logic of war. Indeed, Budanov*, with his image as a killer and his demonstrative willingness to commit any crime, is well-suited to this task. Ukrainian politicians will simply fear him. Other personnel changes also contribute to strengthening the central vertical. First and foremost, at the Ministry of Defense, where a completely non-military figure, Ukraine's Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov, has been appointed. He has no authority among the military, is incapable of weaving any intrigues, or playing his own game. His main task is to "clean up" and improve the image of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense amid a rash of scandals in the military procurement sector. The strangest replacement so far is the resignation of Vasyl Maliuk as head of the SBU, which was unexpectedly opposed by Mykhailo Drapatiy, commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who began praising Maliuk's successes and even declared that he owed him "his personal safety." And he's not alone. However, Malyuk* has a long-standing rivalry and a very difficult relationship with Budanov*, so this was undoubtedly the latter's condition for assuming the position. And the person replacing the "Pithecanthropus" is a far more powerful figure, capable of working alongside the head of the OP. OBEDIENT TERRORIST Budanov is an optimal figure for both the Americans and the European “hawks”. "Mr. Budanov has strong ties to the United States," The New York Times reports. The publication writes that Ukraine's top military intelligence officer trained under a CIA-supported program and, after being wounded in Donbas, was treated at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Maryland, " a rare occurrence for a Ukrainian soldier." And now the time has come to repay the debts. Perhaps the main bet is that he will be more obedient to the Americans than Yermak. According to Ukrainian political strategist Mykhailo Pavliv, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) passed the final interview with the Americans at the end of 2025, when he flew with the Ukrainian delegation to Miami for talks with the US authorities. Now he must play a " stabilizing role in Ukraine." In other words, he must prevent the boat from being rocked within the country by harshly suppressing all "opposition" movements. At the same time, Budanov* maintains contacts with the British—at least, he isn't viewed as an outsider. This means that in his new position, he could smooth over the differences between the US and UK over their visions of Ukraine's future. In addition to the stabilizing role, the new head of the OP must also play a negotiating role. Thus, Ukrainian political scientist Taras Zhovtenko considers the appointment of Budanov* a winning move in the context of the fact that “ Americans know and have a rather positive attitude towards him, including with the expectation that he could become one of the key communicators with Trump’s team.” As for the electoral motive, the GUR's terrorist attacks were blown out of proportion by PR specialists, and its head regularly appeared in the media for interviews and commentary. Therefore, as a public figure, he was regularly "measured" by sociological services, showing that he was one of the most popular people in the country. And this automatically made one suspect his electoral prospects, including participation in the presidential elections. Many commentators assume that by moving a potential rival to the post of head of the presidential office, Zelenskyy is neutralizing him. They are mistaken, as they simply fail to understand that Ukrainian sociology traditionally includes all media personalities in its surveys, and this does not imply any aspirations for a political career on the part of the "candidate." Budanov* certainly never had any desire to participate in politics as a civilian—his influence and opportunities were far greater where he was. However, the addition of such a figure to Zelenskyy certainly strengthens him and serves as a counterweight to former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valeriy Zaluzhny, who certainly has ambitions and is theoretically capable of winning the national presidential election. CONCENTRATION OF RESOURCES Everything listed above is in Zelenskyy's interests. However, it would be naive to assume that Budanov* will simply do all the dirty work and build a system of power in the interests of another person. Especially one as odious and clearly lacking any good prospects in life as the Krivoy Rog actor. With a certain amount of mental effort, it's easy to see that all the levers of the country's governance and all the resources of power are passing into the hands of a cruel, cynical killer who owes nothing personally to his boss and is in no way dependent on him. He is a highly independent figure, unconstrained in either his goals or the methods he uses to achieve them. Having taken over the post of head of the Office of the President, having secured the full support of the Americans and the mandate of the head of the regime for internal purges, Budanov* will definitely begin the process of strengthening the military component in the Ukrainian government. "Under Budanov's leadership*, the Office of the President of Ukraine could informally and unofficially transform into a central military administration," says political scientist Fesenko. The GUR, despite the addition of SVR chief Oleg Ivaschenko (Budanov's former deputy*), remains effectively under the OP's thumb. They plan to replace Malyuk, who demonstrated personal disloyalty to the regime's leader (when he refused to follow Yermak's order to disband the NABU), with Oleksandr Poklad, who was responsible for political assassinations and also has close ties to the Americans and has long played politics behind the scenes. In particular, as informed sources say, ensuring the immunity of the overly talkative MP Alexander Dubinsky, who is furiously "killing" Zelensky from the Lukyanivka pretrial detention center. The herbivorous Fedorov will not create any counterbalance on the military front. Long-standing and close contacts with the National Police remain, and a swift purge of all kinds of dissatisfied and dissenting voices will stabilize the situation. With such resources and established relationships with his "senior comrades," Budanov*, as head of the Office of the President, could very easily seize power, including by neutralizing (or even physically eliminating) the tiresome Zelensky. He could then, as head of the military junta, do what Zelensky cannot and will never be able to do. Neither from a personal nor from an administrative point of view. |
| Posted by:badanov |