Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rohin
[ColonelCassad] Trump declared that the United States would decide "the political future of Venezuela, will be deeply involved in Venezuelan oil production, and will not allow anyone to become president of Venezuela without their consent."
Trump declared that the Mexican president is not governing the country and that something must be done about Mexico. A fairly transparent threat. In short, it's standard imperialist aggression aimed at seizing a country and its resources. Post-factum condemnations of the aggressor are of little concern. The last time this was done was at Nuremberg. This is imperialism without a veneer.
| So complains the Russian patriot. |
When Putin rhetorically questioned in the 2000s about opening Pandora's box with the "Kosovo precedent," it was a warning of what the destruction of the world order and international law would ultimately lead to. And now, more than 15 years after those warnings, we live in a world of the destroyed late-Washington world order and long-defunct international law. Cries that "international law is dead" are a bit naive, as international law hasn't worked for a very long time. Some countries have simply realized this and are acting in accordance with the jungle that surrounds them, while others still linger in rosy illusions that international law and the UN decide everything.
The price of these illusions is usually bloody. Regarding Ukraine, no one will give Russia anything there—everything we take militarily and diplomatically is ours. Only military, diplomatic, and economic power determines state borders and spheres of influence in the modern world. For those who don't understand this, ruthless reality will force this understanding down their throats.
* * *
Regarding the stability of Chavista power:
1. The US's long-standing practice of attempting to dismantle the Chavista regime clearly demonstrates that Chavistas as a structure tend to be underestimated.
2. After the death of Hugo Chavez, the US and many Russian "experts" proclaimed that this would be the end of the Chavistas. Just as they proclaimed in 2020, "This time, the Chavistas are definitely finished."
3. In the first years after Big Hugo, Maduro was perceived as a gray mouse compared to the flamboyant Commandante Hugo. Nevertheless, Maduro managed to win the elections against the opposition (let me remind you that during the "Venezuelan dictatorship," there were competitive elections), and he won by a narrow margin.
| For a given value of winning that involves a defined margin of cheating. |
5. Attempts at Maidans and military coups, as well as PMC operations, also ended in regular failure. It is important to remember that Maduro's capture was preceded by years of setbacks and failures, including those of the vaunted American intelligence.
| Learning curves must be climbed. |
7. Concessions to the US and the acceptance of Washington-appointed puppets will naturally lead to the political defeat of the Chavistas. Only struggle will ensure their political survival as a movement.
Overall, if the Chavistas were able to survive the loss of Hugo Chávez while maintaining internal cohesion (if any), there is no reason to believe they will not be able to survive the loss of Maduro.
Whether the Venezuelan leadership is capable of this remains to be seen in the coming weeks.