by Gevorg Mirzayan
| Day 1 stories can be seen here, here, and here. For completeness, this story was posted shortly before events commenced. |
Moreover, they struck not only military personnel but also symbolic sites, such as Hugo Chávez's mausoleum.
According to US President Donald Trump, the operation succeeded in capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and spiriting them out of the country. The White House occupant promises to hold a press conference at 11 a.m. Washington time (7 p.m. Moscow time) to share the details.
Indirect confirmation of this statement is the absence of a live speech from Maduro in Caracas, which has yet to be heard. Only the publication of his decree declaring a state of emergency in the country has been released.
There is also an official statement from the Venezuelan government, which states that “the sole purpose of the attack is to seize control of Venezuela’s strategic resources, primarily oil and mineral resources.”
The authorities are clearly trying to rally the population for resistance. Not in defense of the president, whom a significant portion of the population views rather negatively, but in defense of Venezuelan mineral resources from American corporations.
US Army helicopters were spotted over the country's capital, Caracas.
Firstly, this means that Venezuela's entire air defense system is not functioning – as military bloggers joke, the only example of their use was the detonation of missiles at Higuerote Airport (east of Caracas) after the Americans struck it.
| Oh dear. |
Moreover, it's not just the large systems that are nonfunctional—they're not even attempting to shoot down the helicopters with MANPADS. And since these systems couldn't self-destruct, it's possible that some Venezuelan army generals decided (perhaps at a cost) to stand aside.
Secondly, American helicopters are deploying troops—Delta Force, according to Western media reports. This means the focus is on the targeted assassination or capture of the Venezuelan government's leaders, chief among them Nicolás Maduro.
In essence, the fate of the operation is now being decided in the next few days, not even hours.
The fact is that, legally, Trump is in limbo. Nominally, the president has every right to launch a military operation and carry it out for 60 days without congressional authorization.
The problem, however, is that he nominally began the “war against the drug mafia” (as Trump calls the operation against Venezuela) several months ago – the moment he sank the first “drug ship” leaving a Venezuelan port.
And members of Congress have the right to accuse the president of breaking the law.
This means Trump needs to conduct a blitzkrieg, with minimal losses and maximum media impact. Then he'll be able to achieve several goals at once. First, he'll wipe the floor with his opponents in the "deep state." Trump needs the image of a victorious president, especially in the run-up to the midterm congressional elections scheduled for November 2026.
Secondly, to demonstrate in practice the "Monroe Doctrine 2.0," which was proclaimed in the US national security strategy. This doctrine, under which the United States positions Latin America as its exclusive zone of influence, demands that local authorities fully subordinate their interests to those of the United States.
And finally, thirdly, Trump needs to prove the seriousness of his threats. For nearly six months, Washington has been massing troops near Venezuela and threatening war for insubordination—and if words remained just words, none of America's enemies would take Trump's threats seriously anymore.
Threats regarding Panama, Greenland, Mexico—that is, in general, regions that are part of the Western Hemisphere and fall under the Monroe Doctrine.
And now much will depend on whether Venezuela can withstand the first days of aggression and whether it can survive the capture of Nicolás Maduro.
Yes, the country is nominally prepared to resist—as Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López, speaking from his bunker, says, for example. However, experts don't rule out the possibility that the vertical power structure without Maduro could simply crumble.
Meanwhile, Venezuela shouldn't expect any outside help. Of all the countries currently speaking out loudest, Venezuela's neighbor, Colombia (whose president, Gustavo Petro, is also no friend of the United States, and therefore could be the next victim of American aggression) is the one speaking out loudest.
Bogotá calls for immediate emergency meetings of the Organization of American States, as well as the UN Security Council, of which it is currently a non-permanent member.
The great powers remain silent for now.
Partly because they don't have full information about what's happening, including the fate of the Venezuelan president.
Partly because there is no way to physically help Venezuela, which is very far away.
And partly because they all want America to get deeper into the Venezuelan conflict so that Trump has no time for other regions that are already foreign to him.
| Summarizing the situation as of 11:30 p.m ET Saturday: President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, appeared in New York City to be indicted in the Southern District of New York. We had reports that their son was also charged with drug trafficking and Vice President Delcy Rodriguez fled to Russia. President Trump announced America will govern Venezuela until a new government is put in place, and American oil companies will refurbish and restart Venezuelan oil production. |