[Korrespondent] For both Ukraine and the Russian Federation, 2025 turned out to be a difficult year. Many are betting on the resolution of the war next year.
While there is no definitive opinion on whether the war in Ukraine will end in 2026, recent official statements and intelligence projections suggest that this year is crucial for a potential settlement of a full-scale Russian military invasion.
OFFICIAL FORECASTS
Ukrainian leadership : President Volodymyr Zelensky said on December 30 that there was a "great chance" of ending the war in 2026. He cited mobilization problems in Russia, noting that for the first time in 2025, the number of Russian recruits only equaled their losses, which halted the growth of the army.
International organizations : The IMF's baseline scenario previously assumed the war would end by the end of 2025, but its negative scenario considers the fighting to continue until mid-2026. The European Union has also modeled financing scenarios assuming the war could end by the end of 2026.
KEY FACTORS FOR 2026
Negotiations : Intensive diplomatic efforts involving the United States and the European Union are expected to continue into 2026. Reports indicate that Kyiv and Washington have reached preliminary agreements on most points of the peace plan, although territorial disputes remain a major obstacle.
Resource depletion : Analysts suggest that a "window of opportunity" for a peace deal could appear in the second half of 2026 if Russia realizes that it cannot breach the front line and Ukraine demonstrates resilience in a war of attrition.
Russian strategic timeline : Ukrainian military intelligence reported that Moscow previously sought to "solve the Ukrainian issue" by 2026 to avoid further economic lag behind the US and China.
WHAT THE MILITARY AND EXPERTS SAY
Commander of the 429th separate Achilles unmanned systems regiment, Yuriy Fedorenko, in a comment to Channel 24 said: "In my opinion, we cannot say now that the war will end in the short term. Most likely, it will continue throughout 2026 and even at the beginning of 2027."
Retired Royal Air Force Vice Marshal Sean Bell believes that it is difficult to make predictions because there are currently no signs that Putin wants to end the war.
At the same time, diplomat Volodymyr Ohryzko is convinced that 2026 will be a year of peace for Ukraine.
"Without a doubt. Because I look at the problem not from our side, but from the Russian side, and I see that it is becoming more and more active. Therefore, I think that next year will be the last year when Russia will be able to do anything. After that, it will no longer have the physical ability to continue the war, so it will end," he said on Radio NV.
Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv-based Penta think tank, also believes that if Russia fails to break through the front line and advance quickly, there may be a chance to sign a peace agreement in the second half of 2026.
"Everything will depend on the personal willingness of the Kremlin and Putin to come to an agreement," he told Al Jazeera.
In turn, British political analyst Scott Lucas believes that Russia's economy is in a bad state, but it is unknown whether it will be able to stop Moscow's aggression.
"At some point, the Kremlin will have to make a choice about whether to continue the invasion. The Kremlin has 6 to 12 months to try to break Ukraine. If they can't do it in that time, they may have to back down," the expert wrote in X.