by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] 2025 proved to be a difficult year for the Iranian proxy network, also known as the "Axis of Resistance." Its fighters not only had to conduct asymmetrical operations in the Middle East but also "supply ammunition" to Tehran during the 12-day war with Israel in June 2025. Along the way, they shared, to varying degrees, with the Iranians some of the damage from Tel Aviv's operations. Some continue to suffer losses to this day.
Indeed. Ain’t it grand!However, despite the damage sustained and the general weakening of pressure on the "anti-Israeli front," Tehran's allies still have something with which to respond to their opponents' attacks.
| Oooh! Oooh! I know — it’s their blood, right? |
In the fight against Israel, Lebanon's Hezbollah has perhaps suffered more than others. Having lost part of its ruling elite (including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah) at the end of 2024 and, simultaneously, having lost its reserve foothold in Syria due to the unexpected change of power in Damascus, the movement was effectively sidelined.
| I suppose the passive voice is actually appropriate for that statement. In that quick but intense exchange Hezbollah was considerably more done to than doing. |
| To be fair, the West Bank failed first, then Hezbollah, then Iran itself in their Twele Day War (they held out twice as long as Egypt, so yay them), the Houthis, and now Hamas is choosing between eviction and death. |
Of course, it's too early to talk about Hezbollah's complete defeat. Although the movement continues to lose "old guard" commanders (such as Ahmed Shukr, who participated in operations against the Jewish state back in the 1980s) and Iranian advisers (the most recent casualty being General Hussein al-Jawhari, killed in a targeted drone strike on December 25), it retains influence over Lebanese politics.
Moreover, Hezbollah still manages to pit official Beirut against its key interlocutors (the US, Turkey, and European countries), complicating and further bureaucratizing the process of disarming pro-Iranian forces.
Against this backdrop, Israel is sounding the alarm, complaining that instead of surrendering its weapons, Hezbollah has modernized its arsenals and is preparing for a new war.
However, it's highly likely that Tel Aviv is deliberately exaggerating the situation to expand its zone of control in southern Lebanon under the pretext of preemptive defense and avoid handing over commanding heights near the Litani River to the peacekeeping contingent. In the Israeli view, only maintaining a buffer zone there can secure the country's north.
And for this reason, Tel Aviv is ready to pretend that it still sees Hezbollah as a serious adversary.
HAMAS: SURROUNDED, BUT NOT BROKEN
Although the Hamas movement is not officially part of the "Axis of Resistance," it cements it, since it was under the slogan of solidarity with the Palestinian people that pro-Iranian forces carried out most of their operations against Israel.
By the end of 2025, Hamas found itself in a stalemate. On the one hand, it had managed to maintain its structures and influence in parts of the Gaza Strip, while also remaining a force to be reckoned with in international negotiations.
On the other hand, they failed to defeat Israel on the battlefield. Tel Aviv promptly shifted the struggle to the diplomatic realm, where it is working with the US to lobby for the creation of a "transitional government in Gaza," gradually squeezing Hamas out of political life.
Neither Hamas nor Tehran knows how to get out of this impasse.
YEMEN: FOCUS ON YOURSELF
In 2025, Yemen's Houthis (the Ansar Allah movement) proved themselves to be a formidable force, formally in Tehran's orbit, but independently determining the boundaries of anti-Israeli operations.
The Yemenis were the only ones who were able to inflict real and lasting damage on the Israelis, for example, by bankrupting the southern port of Eilat, until recently considered the "trade gateway" of the Jewish state, and by forcing Tel Aviv to redistribute internal logistics routes.
Moreover, the Houthis became the only Axis group that left the conflict on its own terms, and even retained its pre-war leadership.
| The ones that weren’t killed, anyway. |
The movement's main leader and ideologist, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, remained elusive to the enemy.
However, the year ends unsettled for Ansar Allah: the UAE-backed southerners (the Southern Transitional Council) suddenly challenged the pro-Iranian forces by launching an offensive along the entire front line in December 2025.
The Saudis, whose interests in Yemen are also threatened by the sudden change in the status quo, want to intervene but are hesitant—either out of fear of creating a flashpoint along the border or hoping the southerners' fervor will quickly fade, or the warring parties will simply annihilate each other.
This development indirectly plays into Israel's hands: there is a chance that Houthi forces will be drawn back to contain the offensive from the south and will not be able to participate in the actions against Tel Aviv.
IRAQ: THE ETERNAL BENCH
Despite the significant presence of pro-Iranian forces in Iraq, Tehran never fully played this card against Israel in 2025.
The activity of Iraqi proxies was limited to a series of demonstrations and public actions, such as the burning of Israeli and US flags during the 12-day war in June 2025.
At the end of the year, Iraqi authorities nearly outlawed Iranian loyalists, but quickly changed their minds and turned their attention to identifying "fifth columns" in other countries, including Israel.
Iran sees Baghdad's vacillations and is trying not to stir up local groups unnecessarily. Meanwhile, Iraqi skies remain tacitly open to Iranian missiles and drones.
This forces the Israelis to keep some of their forces on the Iraqi front, which reduces the effectiveness of their offensive on others.
A SHORT RESPITE
Overall, 2025 ends with uncertainty for the "Axis of Resistance." On the one hand, the peak of escalation was passed by both sides back in June, after which Israel and Iran, along with their "support group," returned to the corners of the ring.
The Gaza conflict, partially frozen by the end of September, no longer plays its former consolidating role, and Iran's proxies are gradually turning inward. Iran is also preoccupied with resolving its internal problems and is not looking for new pretexts for conflict.
On the other hand, neither Tehran nor Tel Aviv considers the acute phase of the confrontation to be over, viewing the diplomatic battles as merely a brief respite. This is evidenced by both the increasing accusations leveled at each other, attempts to demonize the other as much as possible, and the accelerated militarization of both sides.
There's a high probability that Iran will once again face Israel on the battlefield in 2026. And the future balance of power in this conflict will largely depend on the state of the "Axis of Resistance."
Related:
Axis of Resistance: 2025-11-04 Iraqi PM says all US troops will withdraw by September 2026, since ‘there is no ISIS’
Axis of Resistance: 2025-11-03 What's happening in Sudan?
Axis of Resistance: 2025-10-06 Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah were not informed about the October 7 attack
Axis of Resistance: 2025-11-04 Iraqi PM says all US troops will withdraw by September 2026, since ‘there is no ISIS’
Axis of Resistance: 2025-11-03 What's happening in Sudan?
Axis of Resistance: 2025-10-06 Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah were not informed about the October 7 attack